Follow up on Czechia: “no question” their success was due to face masks
I save bookmarks of past forecasts for future follow up. Steven Kashkett of USA Today claimed in July of 2020 that Czechia proved face masks worked to stop Covid-19. He…
UK SAGE Disease Modeler only models worst case scenarios
Hmmmmm: My Twitter conversation with the chairman of the Sage Covid modelling committee | The Spectator This UK disease modeler says he only models worst case – and does not…
Half of the U.S. population has had Covid-19
The CDC estimates about half of the U.S. population had had Covid-19 from Feb 2020 to Sep 2021. Source: Estimated COVID-19 Burden | CDC An OHSU model, updated monthly since…
Omicron travel bans make no sense
I made this chart on Nov 30th Dec 1st, and it is up to date as of that day. As of Dec 3, there are 38 countries with confirmed cases,…
Covid: Face masks now mandated inside private homes in California County
Indoor mask mandate in effect in Santa Cruz Co. An indoor mask mandate is now in effect in Santa Cruz County and it covers private settings like a home. If…
The worker shortage
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday that labor force participation was “quite depressed” compared to pre-pandemic levels. Source: Labor force participation “quite depressed” versus pre-pandemic levels, Yellen says…
Follow up from February 2021: “And there you go: Pandemic should end by mid-year”
This forecast did not age well: And there you go: Pandemic should end by mid-year | Coldstreams Business and Tech
Follow up: “The epidemiologists Strike Back: Revenge of the Models Episode III”
In February, as cases were falling rapidly, the disease modelers projected a large rise in daily new cases starting as soon as May (but with a multi-month window), and caused…
Follow up: “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April” – 2021
This did not age well: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April – WSJ | Coldstreams Business and Tech
Another super spreader prediction that failed: School re-openings this fall
A few months back experts said opening schools would be a super spreader event. For the most part, like all super spreader predictions, this forecast was also wrong: New research…