model failure

Models still posted Thursday on the Rhode Island Department of Health’s website showed that the peak need for hospital beds for COVID-19 patients will occur this Sunday, May 3, with 2,250 beds needed.

In truth, there were evidently 339 people hospitalized yesterday, though the state seems to be having trouble accurately counting the number.

Source: Editorial: Modeling was grossly inaccurate – Opinion – – Providence, RI

Disease models have been awful.

U.S. extends transit face mask requirements through Sept. 13 | Reuters

The requirement should be based on disease metrics, not a fixed date. This illustrates the lack of data-based decision making – instead, their rules are random:

The Biden administration said on Friday it is extending face mask requirements across all U.S. transportation networks through Sept. 13 to address the spread of COVID-19.

Source: U.S. extends transit face mask requirements through Sept. 13 | Reuters

Suppose daily new cases reach the low thousands in 2-3 months, and daily deaths nationwide have fallen to 100/day. Shouldn’t face mask requirements be dropped – especially for vaccinated people by then?


I agree: Oregon officials say Covid-19 cases should ease up within 2-3 weeks

I agree – but something they did not mention is that the easing began one week before new restrictions were put in place:

As 15 Oregon counties moved back to “Extreme Risk” COVID-19 restrictions on Friday, Gov. Kate Brown and state health officials said the latest modeling shows that this round of severe business limits should end in about three weeks, thanks to increased number of vaccinated Oregonians.

Source: Gov. Brown, health officials: COVID-19 surge should ease in 2-3 weeks as vaccinations rise – KTVZ

Here is the 1st derivative of the Oregon epicurve of daily new positive test results:

The red line indicates the rate of change of the case count. On April 23, one week ago, the 7-day moving average in the rate of change went to zero and then began decreasing. With the rate of change dropping, this will soon lead to reduce daily positive test results. (Note – since the red line is an Excel rearward looking 7-day moving average, the part of the red line beyond the blue area is speculative.)

The State began new business restrictions effective April 30th, and these will be credited with the reduced cases; however, the reduction began one week in advance.

Vaccinations are likely a major factor in the reversal of the epicurve rate of growth.

Remember, I am a brain injured idiot with no relevant experience. I make observations and ask stupid questions.

I noticed last December that communities that had reached around 30+/-% having immunity (mostly natural immunity) began to see their new cases dropping. More recent data suggests that by the time you reach 50%+/-, daily case counts collapse.

Oregon, which probably by luck and demographics, kept case counts and deaths lower than almost other states, had comparatively few people with natural immunity. Other states like this – such as MI and VT – also saw their daily case counts shoot up at this late point in time. States that previously had very high case counts (CA with 30-55%, depending on County, having natural immunity) now have among the lowest positive test rates.

AA more and more are vaccinated, the percent immune is reaching levels where it daily case counts drop. Oregon is just about at 30% of adults fully vaccinated now, and even more have one one dose on board. Hence, daily new cases will be subsidin – and I think this will be obvious by next week. In fact, this week’s case numbers look to be less than the prior week. Hospitalizations will lag for a bit.

But again, I am a brain injured idiot so please ignore anything I write about this topic.

Update: The Gompertz wave here is obvious and deaths will soon be minimal.

GM to address rare Chevy Bolt EV battery fires with new diagnostics

Rather than replace the errant batteries (apparently problem may only affect some vehicles or scenarios), GM dealers will install a new diagnostic system that monitors the battery pack and issues a warning to have it serviced, before it becomes a critical failure.

The software will monitor for potential battery problems and alert owners before they become an issue.

Source: GM to install advanced diagnostic software in all Chevy Bolts as recall fix – Roadshow

Biden proposes incentives to have large families, increase population

Giving incentives to have large families is solving which problem? This is in opposition to his “Green New Deal” goals.

President Joe Biden unveiled his next $1.9 trillion stimulus package on Wednesday focusing on universal preschool, free community college, national paid leave program and child care spending caps. …

Source: New stimulus package: Biden unveils free preschool, community college, paid leave, child tax credits

Also, saw this chart that seems in conflict with the assumption that the entire U.S. economy still requires massive debt fueled “stimulus”. Much of the economy is apparently doing okay – obviously, there are sections that are not. My Governor just closed all restaurants again, for the next 3 weeks.

“By the end of March 2020, the WHO posted on social media, “FACT: COVID-19 is NOT airborne,” and said that stating otherwise was “misinformation” (2). Meanwhile, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) declared in March 2020 that SARS-CoV-2 spreads mainly “through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks that can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs” (3). The CDC did not begin using the words “airborne” or “aerosol” to describe transmission until October 2020.”

It’s been a train wreck of inconsistent, contradictory and incoherent messaging for those of us for whom details matter and we actually pay attention to the inconsistencies and flip flops.