Here’s the vaccine availability timeline, from news reports, sourcing to the US Department of Health and Human Services.
Most vaccines are 2 doses, with the 2nd dose coming about 4 weeks after the first.
- December: 20 to 40 doses, providing the first shot for 20 to 40 million people.
- January: Up to 60 to 70 million doses, with some being given as the 2nd shot and some given as the 1st shot.
- February: Not specified, but assume up to 100 million doses.
- March: 150 million doses and the same number available every month thereafter.
That’s 330 million doses, or assuming 2 per person, that’s about 165 million potentially vaccinated or 50% of the population by around March/April time frame.
Adding 75 million more people, per month, achieves availability to everyone by June.
The major logistic challenge is administration of doses to individuals. We need to target up to over 3 million doses per day, 7 days per week.
Also consider, per the former FDA Commissioner, up to 30% of the U.S. population may have had Covid-19 by end of 2020, and thereby, various forms of immunity. An additional unknown percentage appears to have pre-existing immunity – perhaps due to exposure to common cold viruses or other vaccines (notably TB and MMR) that may offer some exposure.
It seems likely – doesn’t it? – that the pandemic will peak shortly and then drop in early 2021. But remember, I am an idiot who has no health care certification and my comments are for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Additional vaccines from other manufacturers will be forthcoming in early 2021 too. Perhaps as many as ten!
The bottleneck is not going to be vaccine dose availability. The bottleneck is in administering the vaccinations – up to 3 million per day, 7 days per week.
States have formulated priority access plans for vaccine administration.
Without going through the details, many of the near elderly – such as age 60 to 64 – will be among the last 5% eligible for vaccination. That’s just how the vaccine access plans have been written.