Several months ago, I posted the following on the “Oregon Covid-19 Data” page (Since deactivated as I am no longer updating that page).

Intuitively, there was much fear for health care workers contracting Covid-19 “on the job”. My state calls out what percent of health care workers got Covid-19 in their daily web update-but never says whether they contracted Covid-19 on the job or elsewhere. I noticed that health care workers were contracting Covid-19 at a lower rate than one would expect when looking at their numbers in the workforce.

Today, my assessment has been confirmed by a study from Minnesota which finds their risk of catching Covid-19 is more likely to come from home and community settings.

Continue reading Health care workers more likely to get Covid-19 outside of work →

Have been viewing public health officials as clowns for some time.

They finally removed all doubt.

They apparently got the idea from the public health department in Argentina. Children are not the audience for these video releases so this was a big misfire.

I have been perplexed as to why places with long standing face mask mandates have seen explosions in cases months later. We are seeing this all over the world now. A logical question is:  Why are face masks not working?

• Many face masks used are not using effective filtration materials.
• Many people are not using the masks properly. Yesterday I saw a news photo of a crowd at a public event where face masks were mandatory for all adults. More than half of the adults had their noses uncovered, their mouth and nose uncovered, or the mask pull down around their necks!
• Social distancing behavior changes when wearing a mask. We see this at many events where the six foot guidelines seem to vanish when people are wearing a face mask.
• Finally, it may be because we are required to wear masks where they would have little impact in reducing the spread of the disease -and not required where they would have an impact. Specifically, 40% of new Covid-19 cases come from close household contacts; but no one wears a face mask in their own home. Another 20% or so come from close social contacts, often when meeting in someone’s home. Again, few wear a face mask in their own homes.
• THIS IS PROBABLY WHY FACE MASKS ARE NOT HAVING MUCH EFFECT – WE WEAR THEM WHERE RISK  IS LOW – AND DO NOT WEAR THEM WHERE RISK IS HIGH (INSIDE OUR HOMES). There is little chance I will catch Covid-19 while shopping at my local mega building supply store – everyone is spaced apart, and if not, its only for a very brief passage in an aisle. There is no extended close contact. But inside our homes? Tons of extended close contact.
• In actual fact, this issue has begun to be noticed.
• The likelihood of compliance with mandatory 24 x 7 face mask wearing inside your own home is probably going to be nil.

I’m sold old, I remember when Germany did everything right.

• April 2nd: Germany has remarkably few coronavirus deaths
• April 4/May 6: A German Exception? Why the country’s coronavirus rate is low
• June 3d: How Germany got coronavirus right
• July 21: Germany’s coronavirus response is a master class in science communication
• October 27: Germany to go into circuit-break lockdown as coronavirus surges

Mask wearing was mandatory on public transport and in retail shops since April. Two weeks ago, wearing masks outdoors in public spaces became mandatory.

Yet another example of a region that did everything right to great success – until it was no longer successful.

This – repeated in numerous countries – points to public health mitigation strategies that do not work because they are not sustainable, not effective, or do not work. Public health must re-think its response to pandemics. What worked 300 years ago for isolated agricultural and small port cities no longer works today – but public health is doing exactly what they did back then with bad outcomes.

Continue reading Germany goes into month long lock down. I’m so old, I remember …. oh hell →

Looks like all of these areas have had mandated face mask requirements in effect since April-May – with fines on businesses that do not enforce the rules – and yet they saw an explosion of cases in the summer and now again the fall – begging the question: Why are face masks not working?

With its backlog of cases, Los Angeles County reported the largest week-over-week increase. But even subtracting LA County leaves the statewide average 33% higher than it was a week ago.

In the Inland Empire, Riverside and San Bernardino counties each reported an increase in cases of 69% in the past week. In nearby Orange County, there was a 56% increase in cases from a week ago.

In the Bay Area, Alameda and Santa Clara counties each reported at least 37% more cases than last week, while the increase in Contra Costa County was about 26%. An uptick in cases in San Francisco two weeks ago appeared to slow in the past week, as the city reported a modest 4% gain over the past seven days.

Source: Coronavirus: California’s largest counties report uptick in cases

This July 2020 graphic indicates that face mask wearing compliance was high (80+%) in most populated counties. Other surveys put the figure at 90 percent. These are astoundingly high compliance figures. My state has an 84% compliance according to the state public health department.

In July, public health said they believe “wearing face coverings can substantially slow transmission of the coronavirus”. In August the CDC Director said this would all be over with in weeks if everyone wore a face mask. The UW IHME even made detailed forecasts by state of how many deaths would be prevented by wearing face masks[1].

“In one simulation, researchers predicted that 80 percent of the population wearing masks would do more to reduce COVID-19 spread than a strict lockdown”

Source

It’s now almost November and compliance continues to be high (80 to 95%) in most populated areas.

Why are face masks not working as predicted?

UPDATE:

Why are face masks not working?

• Many face masks used are not using effective filtration materials.
• Many people are not using the masks properly. Yesterday I saw a news photo of a crowd at a public event where face masks were mandatory for all adults. More than half of the adults had their noses uncovered, their mouth and nose uncovered, or the mask pull down around their necks!
• Social distancing behavior changes when wearing a mask. We see this at many events where the six foot guidelines seem to vanish when people are wearing a face mask.
• Finally, it may be because we are required to wear masks where they would have little impact in reducing the spread of the disease -and not required where they would have an impact. Specifically, 40% of new Covid-19 cases come from close household contacts; but no one wears a face mask in their own home. Another 20% or so come from close social contacts, often when meeting in someone’s home. Again, few wear a face mask in their own homes.
• THIS IS PROBABLY WHY FACE MASKS ARE NOT HAVING MUCH EFFECT – WE WEAR THEM WHERE RISK  IS LOW – AND DO NOT WEAR THEM WHERE RISK IS HIGH (INSIDE OUR HOMES). There is little chance I will catch Covid-19 while shopping at my local mega building supply store – everyone is spaced apart, and if not, its only for a very brief passage in an aisle. There is no extended close contact. But inside our homes? Tons of extended close contact.

The effect is that while masks work in theory, they do not do much in the real world.

Continue reading Why are face masks not working? →