Category Archives: Public Health/Coronavirus

CDC Tells how to celebrate Father’s Day

From their illustration, children should only celebrate with their own Father, outdoors, while sitting six feet apart.

Indeed, at the link, they write:

“Have an outdoor celebration with everyone at least 6 feet apart and wearing masks.”

OUTDOORS. They do into more details and exemptions.

While not celebrating, Dad and kids can hang out indoors, apparently.

Another bad bit of messaging with a weird graphic. It has not gone over well with those who replied on social media.

U.S. remains unprepared for “vaccine passports”

The U.S. remains unprepared for a world that is now, and soon will be even more, mandating use of vaccine passports for travel.

The only “proof” available in the U.S. is an easily forge-able, unverifiable paper vaccine card.

Elsewhere nation’s have set up verifiable, authenticated vaccination passport records.

As global travel slowly re-opens to vaccinated travelers, U.S. citizens will remain at a disadvantage because of the incompetence of public health to plan ahead for this need. Public health remains AWOL on this issue.

I have documented that vaccine passports were coming, whether we like it or not, since last winter.

Disease models

Disease models remain worthless, on par with astrology with the honesty of alchemy.

Daily Cases Forecast

Color bands represent 95% confidence interval for each model used. Many of the models were not even in the same planetary system as earth.

Their ensemble (arbitrary averaging of the models) did not have the sign correct showing an increase as the real world went down even sharper.

And here’s the ensemble projection in mid January

One model had forecast over 50 million new weekly cases – causing the skewed Y-Axis here

Deaths Forecast

Official disease model output from the CDC for forecast deaths with 95% confidence intervals shown. The white dots are the “ensemble” (they average all the models together). Again, the sign of the ensemble was in the wrong direction.

The only purpose for disease models is to generate scary news headlines. The disease models otherwise have provided not useful, actionable output.

In the spring of 2020, the Neil Ferguson’s worthless ICL model projected 2.2 million dead in the U.S. by August of 2020. That was the basis for why we went into locking up the entire civilian population.

Simultaneously, the UW IHME’s worthless model projected a massive shortage of ventilators in New York, a shortage that never materialized. In response, the taxpayers spent billions to manufacture more ventilators by summer time – of which none were ever used.

Disease models have the accuracy of astrology and the honesty of alchemy.

In my state, from late October to end of January, they used only short 3-week projections. Even then, in 11 out of 13 model runs, they had the sign wrong. Tossing a coin would have been more accurate.

Dr. Doom’s well publicized past forecasts were wrong

Not until you get to the end of the article do you see admission that he has no idea what will actually happen:

Infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm warned Friday of the possibility of “substantial” local and regional surges of COVID-19, telling CNN’s Poppy Harlow that “we’re not done with this virus at all.”

Source: Infectious Disease Expert Warns ‘We’re Not Done With This Virus At All’ | HuffPost

Don’t think I will bother to mark this post for follow up later. Osterholm’s track record is terrible.

Public health experts want us to plan on wearing face masks forever

Well, they failed to stop Covid-19 so they must work. Or something.

They need a coherent, logical explanation for this – and they don’t have one.

Public health experts are discussing the potential benefits of wearing masks even after the coronavirus pandemic has ended, citing lower cases of respiratory viruses this past winter, a broader understanding of how viruses travel among people, and an increased comfort in using face coverings when inside.

Source: Will face masks be a regular part of life post-pandemic?

Federal Court says CDC has exceeded its legal authority

Ruling in favor of Florida’s Motion for Preliminary Injunction, Judge Steven Merryday concluded the CDC’s restrictions are likely unconstitutional and overstepping their legal authority.

Source: Governor DeSantis Wins Major Victory to Protect Florida’s Cruise Industry

Courts have ruled against numerous public health Orders, nationwide.

In this case, the CDC claimed it had essentially unlimited power and authority to regulate almost everything in the United States.

I did not have a huge problem with requiring cruise ship passengers to be vaccinated. The problem is – in a freedom based democracy, does one agency have absolute authority to rule over everything in the country, over issues for which it has no expertise, and to do so without seeking diverse input from those being ruled?

Sure, we can see a need for short term, emergency orders – but this is not a “30 days” situation but we are now 18 months into this pandemic. At some point, sanity must prevail.

Same thing happened in my state

News outlets, local and national, were conflating the actual number of Floridians who had died of COVID on a given day with the number of COVID deaths that had been entered into the system on that day — a total that included deaths that had occurred days and sometimes weeks before the entry date.

Source: Rebekah Jones Tried to Ruin Florida Academic’s Career | National Review

In January of 2021, our state’s director of public health stated that it appeared January would be the worst month for deaths in our state.

Curiously, I noticed that the “daily reported deaths” often included body counts dating back months ago.

I painstakingly entered into a spreadsheet the actual date of death for what was then about 1,600 deaths in my state.

I found that deaths, by actual date of death, not by date they were reported, had peaked in early December.

I notified my state’s public health officials and within about 2 1/2 weeks they began publishing a new chart on their web site showing deaths by date of death, not date of report. This confirmed my analysis had been correct.

This was the type of mistake that a competent media would have identified instead of having it identified by a brain injured idiot with no relevant experience who makes observations and asks stupid questions.

Incredibly, this error in reporting was widespread and occurred in many states. Which is why I lack any confidence in epidemiology – this was a fundamental error that should never have occurred.

Read the linked article and learn what happened to one grad student who identified this problem in Florida. His career trajectory was nearly killed because he pointed this out.

They canceled it: “CDC Schedules ‘Emergency Meeting’ on Rare Cases of Heart Inflammation After COVID-19 Vaccination”

On about one day’s notice, the CDC has canceled its emergency meeting on the safety of the Covid-19 vaccine in young people, due several hundred experiencing myocarditis.

Apparently the health of young people is not a priority to the CDC:

Most reported cases of myocarditis and pericarditis are in men and happen days after the second coronavirus vaccine dose of Pfizer or Moderna.

Source: CDC Schedules ‘Emergency Meeting’ on Rare Cases of Heart Inflammation After COVID-19 Vaccination | Health News | US News

The President signed a bill declaring “Juneteenth” a new Federal holiday (the average Federal employee will now receive about 9 weeks of paid time off each year).

Consequently, the CDC decided that youth suffering myocarditis is no longer an emergency worthy of their urgent attention.

What a public messaging disaster. AGAIN. The CDC lost credibility long ago – and they keep sticking their foot in it, time after time.

I do not see how public health will restore any credibility during my life time. It’s that bad now.

Update: The CDC even suspended reporting of most pandemic data for the day (click on image to enlarge and read text in blue block). The CDC is messaging the pandemic is over with, there is no longer an emergency in effect.

Oh, and 7-day average of total daily new cases fell below 12,000/day, and 7-day average of deaths has fallen well below 300.

The pandemic is now officially over.

Still no time table on re-opening the U.S.-Canada border

The Republican sent a letter to Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas on Thursday citing how Canadians can fly into the U.S. but the opposite is not true for Americans. She says the current restrictions are not “fully synchronized or equitable for U.S. citizens.”

“I urge you to unilaterally begin easing the restrictions for non-essential travel into the U.S. across the northern border. Immediate actions should include expanding the list of exempted travelers to include family members and extended family members; Canadians with property, boats, or leased campsites in the U.S.; and business representatives with business dealings in the U.S., while beginning a phased reopening to the broader public,” Stefanik said in the letter.

Source: Stefanik: Canadian border closure not ‘equitable’ for US citizens

I have been aware of this asymmetry for some time. Canadians can fly to and from the U.S., but almost all U.S. citizens are banned from entering Canada.[1]

  • Just 20% of Canadians are vaccinated – yet they can come to the U.S. In fact, many Canadians flew to the U.S. to get vaccinations for Covid-19 that were not yet readily available in Canada!
  • About 65% of Americans have at least one dose – but they cannot travel to Canada.

Why?

This is a political restriction based arbitrarily on nationality and has nothing to do with the disease. Nothing at all.

I have seen many Youtube travel videos from people who seem to go through border restrictions around the world.

But most U.S. citizens have been prohibited from travel to the EU and are barred from entry to Canada.

Yet Canadians can readily fly to the U.S., while Americans can not do the opposite.

I have a friend who is a U.S. airline captain – his girlfriend is in Montreal and he’s been barred from traveling up there for over a year.

I know a young dual nationality individual (U.S. and Germany) who moved last year to the Netherlands (for marriage) at a time when U.S. citizens could not (and still cannot) travel. But since she had an EU passport (also a U.S. passport) she could freely travel to the EU, and then back to the U.S. on her U.S. passport.

Meanwhile, others figured how to game the system.

Continue reading Still no time table on re-opening the U.S.-Canada border

Everything in public health was politicized. Everything. All sides.

Why scientists refused to acknowledge the WIV lab-leak hypothesis in 2020:

“At the time, it was scarier to be associated with Trump and to become a tool for racists, so people didn’t want to publicly call for an investigation into lab origins,” she said.

Now, more scientists are comfortable confronting the gamut of plausible theories — particularly given China’s opacity about the topic — although many still caution that entertaining the idea of a lab leak requires clear scientific proof, which hasn’t materialized.

Source: Wuhan lab leak theory: Behind the science and origin of Covid

In other words, politics took priority over science seeking the truth. Ouch.

(I have no idea where the virus came from. I am a brain injured idiot with no relevant experience that makes observations and asks stupid questions. But for about a year, experts were prohibited from making observations and asking basic questions due to their own politics.)

In another example, on June 2nd, 2020 we were told by experts that protesting was now more important than fighting a virus.

One does not need to look far to see that everything in public health was politicized, and thus, lost its own credibility. Over the next 12 months, they screamed “variants” day in and day out, and projected new surges upon surges that never happened.  Sadly, they never read Never Cry Wolf as the townspeople no longer believe anything public health says.