The hospitalization curve has been the most useful and reliable curve for spotting trends – and is far more accurate than the daily new positive test cases curve or death curves.
Positive test cases is dependent on how many tests were run – thus at the start of college semesters, for example, the daily positive test case numbers shoot up because of testing all staff and students, biasing the results for a week or two. Second, WHO acknowledged this week that there is a false positive problem when the RT-PCR test is used not as a diagnostic test but to screen mass populations (WHO has revised procedures to address this). Consequently, the daily new cases trend is not a reliable indicator of the direction of the disease.
Deaths are also a surprisingly unreliable indicator. This is because the curves are based on “daily body count reports” which have nothing to do with the actual days of death. First, you can see that no one collates death data on weekends – rather obvious from this chart.
But the larger problem is the daily body count is a measure of data collection efficiency – not actual deaths by date.
To illustrate, in my state, each daily report lists the actual date of death. On a peak day in December, 54 deaths were listed. However, 38 of those occurred the prior months – in fact, that report include deaths occurring across 5 months. In fact, the most deaths to occur in a 24 hour period was 33 on December 9th. Yet 7 “daily body count” reports exceeded 33 as they caught up with past deaths, often long ago.Continue reading It kinda looks like its ending