Category Archives: Science

Pandemic must be over: “Experts sound the alarm on declining birth rates among younger generations”

I really am so old that I remember when the “Population Bomb” meant the end of the human species:

While the global population is still growing, a major study from 2020 predicts it will peak in 2064 and then fall by nearly a billion people by the end of the century.

Source: Experts sound the alarm on declining birth rates among younger generations: “It’s a crisis” – CBS News

The sole purpose of science and their pals in the media has degenerated into finding things to be scared about. That is a shame.

CDC Data confirms peak deaths occurred in early January

January 28th and on February 1st I said peak deaths were likely behind us, contrary to then current news reports:

If this holds true across the country – and there is strong evidence to suggest it does – then the U.S. hit peak deaths somewhere from late December to early January.

The peak death numbers you see now at end of January are catching up with lagging death reports from weeks ago.

February 27:

Some one posted a chart using “Actual death date” data from the CDC. Peak week of deaths in the U.S. was January 9th (black region on this chart), confirming my hypothesis, above. This is great news! We have passed peak deaths! (With declining new cases, hospital and ICU bed census, we will not soon see a dramatic increase in deaths – by actual dates – although we may still see reports of past deaths.)

Because of long lag times, the CDC’s chart showing “daily reported deaths” is a month or so behind. The random delays in reporting deaths time shifts the death trend in to the future. 2 weeks ago, Ohio began adding 4,000+ deaths occurring in October to December, into their recent daily reports.

For these reasons, death data presented in most charts show public health data collection efficiency and not a trend in deaths by actual date.

The lack of unified, coherent messages about anything in the pandemic is disturbing

This is what is called a “hand waving explanation“. No one has coherent, unified and non-contradictory explanations.

This describes disease models too: “The risks of communicating extreme climate forecasts”

The same for 2020/2021’s Covid-19 disease models:

For decades, climate change researchers and activists have used dramatic forecasts to attempt to influence public perception of the problem and as a call to action on climate change. These forecasts have frequently been for events that might be called “apocalyptic,” because they predict cataclysmic events resulting from climate change.

In a new paper published in the International Journal of Global Warming, Carnegie Mellon University’s David Rode and Paul Fischbeck argue that making such forecasts can be counterproductive. “Truly apocalyptic forecasts can only ever be observed in their failure–that is the world did not end as predicted,” says Rode, adjunct research faculty with the Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center, “and observing a string of repeated apocalyptic forecast failures can undermine the public’s trust in the underlying science.”

….

“from a forecasting perspective, the ‘problem’ is not only that all of the expired forecasts were wrong, but also that so many of them never admitted to any uncertainty about the date. About 43% of the forecasts in our dataset made no mention of uncertainty.”

….

Despite the passage of time, little has changed–across a half a century of forecasts; the apocalypse is always about 20 years out

Source: The risks of communicating extreme climate forecasts | EurekAlert! Science News

Neil Ferguson and Christopher Murray, take note:

Rode and Fischbeck argue that scientists must take extraordinary caution in communicating events of great consequence.

 

Surge in good news: Asthma no longer thought to be a risk factor for Covid-19

Yay.

Compared to the general population, people with asthma were actually 14% less likely to get COVID-19 and much less likely to be hospitalized with the disease.

The risk of death from COVID-19 was the same for people with asthma and those without it, according to the researchers at the George Institute for Global Health, in New South Wales, Australia.

Source: COVID-19 not more deadly for people with asthma, study shows – UPI.com

Ouch: They would have locked us down for 15 years

If we did not have vaccines, epidemiologists such as Jennifer Nuzzo would have locked us down and closed schools for 15 years.

The D.A. Henderson mentioned in the reply to her tweet was responsible for eradicating smallpox. He co-authored a paper in 2006 – with Jennifer Nuzzo – explaining why lockdowns and most epidemiological mitigations do not work or only work for a limited amount of time, if done at precisely the correct time.

Jennifer Nuzzo has forgotten she co-authored that paper – see the second reply to her tweet. The World Health Organization said much the same in an October 2019 report.

After doing a mass population experiment, experts now think 30-40% of the population has had Covid-19 – in spite of, not because of, those mitigations. And some think this has led to natural herd effects.

Continue reading Ouch: They would have locked us down for 15 years

Academic says quarantines should be required for all travel forever, even when there are no pandemics

A word that rhymes with “Boron” comes to mind here:

A two-week quarantine period for international, inter-regional, or transcontinental travel would make a huge difference in preventing future epidemics from becoming pandemics. Standing travel quarantine policies should be implemented, even when we are not in a pandemic. These can become as normal as other preventive measures we take, such as airport security and washing hands after using the bathroom. Having travel quarantine policies in place will also make it easier to adjust for particular events, such as increasing the quarantine time if a long-incubation illness emerges or testing for a particular illness.

Source: An argument for ongoing travel quarantines. — EndCoronavirus.org

Because a 2-week mandatory quarantine in each direction of a trip is exactly the same as “airport security and washing hands after using the bathroom”?

This proposal includes quarantines for travel between U.S. states too – literally placing people under arrest and detaining them. California, if it were a country, would be the 37th largest country in the world and New York would be the 60th largest country in the world.

Continue reading Academic says quarantines should be required for all travel forever, even when there are no pandemics

Univ of Massachusetts professors: “What does a positive COVID test mean?”

When used for asymptomatic mass screening, a positive test has problems: What does a positive COVID test mean? | Covid Balance

The of U of M, like the universities in my state, have not followed WHO guidelines (as of Jan 20, 2021). One university in my state not only tests entire asymptomatic student populations, they also do community surveys where they go door to door – without following WHO guidelines.

I wrote about this problem (Bayes Theorem) as far back as May 25, 2020. I, however, am a brain injured idiot without relevant experience or impressive credentials. I just make observations and ask stupid questions.

Geologists leveraging Amateur Radio networks in aftermath of large quakes

Early damage and “shake” reports help seismologists quickly understand the quake’s impact. But the loss of communications typical after a major quake has created a “donut hole” of missing information.

We now expect to sample the donut hole with the help of amateur radio groups worldwide. These groups, which already provide emergency communications capabilities to government agencies, hospitals, and other critical users during emergencies and disasters, can mobilize a significant number of licensed radio operators after a strong earthquake, especially near large population centers, ensuring a baseline level of macroseismic intensity reporting even in heavily affected areas.

To take advantage of this capability, USGS has partnered with Winlink, a radio email platform with more than 28,000 users worldwide, and with members of the Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES).

Source: Amateur Radio Operators Help Fill Earthquake Donut Holes – Eos