Does Fauci make logical sense?

As cooler weather comes, people need to “double down” on measures that work, Fauci said. “Universal mask wearing” is one, he said, as is keeping a distance from others and frequent hand washing. “They sound very simple. But we’re not uniformly doing that and that’s one of the reasons we’re seeing these surges,” Fauci said.

Source: Fauci says it might be time to mandate masks as Covid-19 surges across US – KTVZ

  • Oregon has had mandated mask wearing since July 1.
  • Our state’s public health officials say we have 84% compliance with mask wearing. 
  • On Friday (October 23), we had the highest ever positive test cases since the pandemic began with cases rising throughout the past weeks, months after face mask mandates went in to effect.
Continue reading Does Fauci make logical sense?

Rapid COVID test false positives 

If public health officials cannot tell you the false positive rate of the tests, the number of actual false positives in the population when used for general screening of asymptomatic populations, or how they are controlling for the conditional probability issue, they are committing malpractice:

Company officials at Becton Dickinson and Co., meanwhile, said the Nevada numbers represent a 0.6% rate of false positives, consistent with the company’s stated rate of up to 2% false positives with its test.

Source: Rapid COVID test effort stumbles over risk of false positives – pennlive.com

Abbott says their test has a 1.5% false positive rate. If the false positive rate is greater than the percent of the population being screened who have the disease, then false positives will exceed true positives.

Continue reading Rapid COVID test false positives 

An interesting chart

Oregon – 7 day moving average of total daily tests versus positive test results. Data for most recent two weeks or so is preliminary/provisional and is routinely updated as more data comes in. Hence the decline in the curve at right is an artifact of the delay in receiving data.

Just guessing that the recent upwards trend at right (days 209-225) is likely to be over 7,000 daily tests as recent positive test results have gone from the 400s up to 550 today and the two lines do correlate.

Update yep, a staggering 9,189 test results came in yesterday – about 50% above the normal run rate. After correcting for that, the number of positive results is exactly in line with the numbers found on recent days this week. Positive results re 5.7% – down from 7.7% last week and 6.0% the week before. Will want to watch hospitalizations next 1-2 weeks and deaths next 3-4 weeks to see if this is a big deal or a statistical artifact.

The state also announced a week ago that it would soon be able to double and triple the number of tests being done through use of the BinaxNOW rapid test, which may have a false positive rate of 3-6% (rates of other tests in the BinaxNOW product line).

We will know in a couple of weeks when the data up through this week is brought up to date.

Data from https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonHealthAuthorityCOVID-19SummaryTable_15889676399110/TotalPersonsTestedSummaryTable

60% of Covid-19 cases trace back to household family members and close social contacts.

40% come from household family members and 20% from close social contacts:

An epidemiologist says even though most are exposed by a household member, that household member contracted the virus outside the home

Source: Clark County’s most likely sources of COVID-19 exposure | kgw.com

This is inline with estimates from Utah early in the summer, which found 66% were from household members or close social contacts (today, Utah estimates about 50%).

An obvious conclusion is that we must mandate the wearing of face masks inside your home, 24 x 7, or else you are putting your own family members at risk and should be publicly shamed.

Continue reading 60% of Covid-19 cases trace back to household family members and close social contacts.

Contact tracing apps do not track surface or air contacts across time | Coldstreams Business and Tech

Re-running this post with a few minor updates. Contact tracing apps do not track surface or air contacts across time | Coldstreams Business and Tech

Bluetooth-based contact tracing apps are incapable of detecting close contacts across time.

Example: Some sits on a bus or at a coffee shop seat, coughs, and then leaves, 30-60 seconds later a new person takes that seat, has direct contact with the seat, plus inhales the aerosolized viral particles and droplets expelled by the person who coughed. BLE-based phone apps are 100% incapable of detecting this close contact.

Great Resource: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard 

Positive test case counts, body counts, by country, and you can see historical trend curves too. Just click on a country on the map.

World Health Organization Coronavirus disease situation dashboard presents official daily counts of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide, while providing a hub to other resources. Interactive tools, including maps, epidemic curves and other charts and graphics, with downloadable data, allow users to track and explore the latest trends, numbers and statistics at global, regional and country levels.

Source: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard | WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard

80% suffering mental health problems due to pandemic policies

Sadly, public health, as in my state, never made any plans other than to shut everything down: Nearly 8 in 10 report pandemic is causing mental health strain, poll shows – UPI.com

The pandemic policy was never informed by evidence, but by fear of worst-case scenarios.”

(2011). “Health is More than Influenza”. Bulletin of the World Health Organization  2011;89:539-540. doi: 10.2471/BLT.11.089086

2 weeks ago was World Mental Health Day, sponsored by WHO. They said what the world needs is “Hope”. But based on pronouncements every day from public health, there is no hope.

Continue reading 80% suffering mental health problems due to pandemic policies

Odd: Do face masks spread Covid-19?

The magenta dots at bottom indicate when various parts of the UK made face masks mandatory, initially only on public transport. But then masks were made mandatory in retail shops and other locations. Rules came into place at varying times depending on location: N Ireland, Wales, Scotland, England and so on.

The more that were required to wear face masks, the worse it became – in fact, many times worse. This pattern has gone on around much of the world and there is no unified explanation as to why face masks have failed to curtail the outbreaks.

Source

This ==> Fascinating assessment of population demographics and potential impact on Covid-19 outcomes

Fascinating insights in this video. Well worth watching, maybe even important to watch. You can fast forward through it, if you wish, to get the gist of the message.

Several studies have published estimated IFRs for various regions around the world. For those below age 70, the IFRs are much lower than the overall/all age population IFR. Another study Dr Campbell shows us finds a strong correlation with age demographics as the factor that distinguishes a low IFR in one region with a high IFR in another. 90% of the difference can be explained by population age differences.

He then shows population pyramids of different countries including a couple in Africa, where disease prevalence is low. The implication is that its low there because overall life expectancy was already low (unfortunately) – and hence, their population is massively skewed towards young people with very few older people. Cases in Kenya have been mild and asymptomatic with few deaths (less than 600 for a population of over 50 million). By comparison, California has had about 17,000 deaths with a population of almost 40 million.

The take aways from this video are many, but the interpretation is left up to you.

Do not confuse case fatality rate (CFR) with infection fatality rate (IFR).