But protests okay:”Covid-19 Is Surging at Weddings, Dinner Parties and Big Group Events”

The desire of Americans to gather at events, including performances, weddings and parties, helps explain the steep rise in new cases.

Source: Covid-19 Is Surging at Weddings, Dinner Parties and Big Group Events – WSJ

But remember, participating in large protest gatherings is actively encouraged by public health experts. And who would dare question public health experts?

#BelievePublicHealthExperts

Should face masks be mandatory 24×7 inside your own home?

Locally (and typical of other areas), 40% of Covid-19 cases originate from a close family contact inside one’s own household.

Similar ratios seen in Santa Clara County, CA which has strict mitigation measures tougher than California requires.

If face masks work, shouldn’t public health demand that everyone wear a face mask 24 x 7 inside their own homes? If face masks work, this would knock out 40% of cases with a single public health mitigation measure.

Simultaneously, public health is telling us that winter is here and spending time indoors will make things worse – but they won’t mandate in-home face masks?

The evidence is overwhelming – public health must immediately mandate the wearing of masks inside personal homes 24 x 7.

“The virus is extraordinarily contagious and as the weather turns and we head indoors it’ll be more important than ever to practice preventive measures,” he [Oregon state epidemiologist] said, noting that wearing masks, practicing social distancing, frequent hand washing and only gathering in small groups are the best ways to prevent the virus from spreading.“The numbers are stark and show why we must take this virus so seriously,” he said.

Source: Coronavirus in Oregon: State reports 418 new cases, 6 new deaths as new modeling shows potential increase in spread – oregonlive.com

Continue reading Should face masks be mandatory 24×7 inside your own home?

Ireland returns to lock up, imprisoning everyone in their homes; other EU nations may follow

Ireland has become the first European country to reinstitute a nationwide lockdown. The government’s stay-at-home order went into effect Wednesday.

Source: Ireland Is the First European Country to Return to Nationwide Shutdown | Travel + Leisure

As explained endlessly by actual experts, lock ups are a temporary, non-sustainable measure – that temporarily slows or delays infections. Locking everyone up does not stop the pandemic, however. And it comes with tremendous costs (like me having to wait two months to get a broken foot diagnosed earlier this year).

EU now has twice as many daily new cases as the U.S.

EU is twice as bad as the U.S. You may remember that the EU did mostly everything right and the U.S. did mostly everything wrong.

My own view is the virus does what the virus does, in spite of, not because of, the random public health mitigation measures. Couple that with the unstated false positive problem of mass screening and you get high new case counts.

Does Fauci make logical sense?

As cooler weather comes, people need to “double down” on measures that work, Fauci said. “Universal mask wearing” is one, he said, as is keeping a distance from others and frequent hand washing. “They sound very simple. But we’re not uniformly doing that and that’s one of the reasons we’re seeing these surges,” Fauci said.

Source: Fauci says it might be time to mandate masks as Covid-19 surges across US – KTVZ

  • Oregon has had mandated mask wearing since July 1.
  • Our state’s public health officials say we have 84% compliance with mask wearing. 
  • On Friday (October 23), we had the highest ever positive test cases since the pandemic began with cases rising throughout the past weeks, months after face mask mandates went in to effect.
Continue reading Does Fauci make logical sense?

Rapid COVID test false positives 

If public health officials cannot tell you the false positive rate of the tests, the number of actual false positives in the population when used for general screening of asymptomatic populations, or how they are controlling for the conditional probability issue, they are committing malpractice:

Company officials at Becton Dickinson and Co., meanwhile, said the Nevada numbers represent a 0.6% rate of false positives, consistent with the company’s stated rate of up to 2% false positives with its test.

Source: Rapid COVID test effort stumbles over risk of false positives – pennlive.com

Abbott says their test has a 1.5% false positive rate. If the false positive rate is greater than the percent of the population being screened who have the disease, then false positives will exceed true positives.

Continue reading Rapid COVID test false positives 

An interesting chart

Oregon – 7 day moving average of total daily tests versus positive test results. Data for most recent two weeks or so is preliminary/provisional and is routinely updated as more data comes in. Hence the decline in the curve at right is an artifact of the delay in receiving data.

Just guessing that the recent upwards trend at right (days 209-225) is likely to be over 7,000 daily tests as recent positive test results have gone from the 400s up to 550 today and the two lines do correlate.

Update yep, a staggering 9,189 test results came in yesterday – about 50% above the normal run rate. After correcting for that, the number of positive results is exactly in line with the numbers found on recent days this week. Positive results re 5.7% – down from 7.7% last week and 6.0% the week before. Will want to watch hospitalizations next 1-2 weeks and deaths next 3-4 weeks to see if this is a big deal or a statistical artifact.

The state also announced a week ago that it would soon be able to double and triple the number of tests being done through use of the BinaxNOW rapid test, which may have a false positive rate of 3-6% (rates of other tests in the BinaxNOW product line).

We will know in a couple of weeks when the data up through this week is brought up to date.

Data from https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonHealthAuthorityCOVID-19SummaryTable_15889676399110/TotalPersonsTestedSummaryTable

60% of Covid-19 cases trace back to household family members and close social contacts.

40% come from household family members and 20% from close social contacts:

An epidemiologist says even though most are exposed by a household member, that household member contracted the virus outside the home

Source: Clark County’s most likely sources of COVID-19 exposure | kgw.com

This is inline with estimates from Utah early in the summer, which found 66% were from household members or close social contacts (today, Utah estimates about 50%).

An obvious conclusion is that we must mandate the wearing of face masks inside your home, 24 x 7, or else you are putting your own family members at risk and should be publicly shamed.

Continue reading 60% of Covid-19 cases trace back to household family members and close social contacts.

Contact tracing apps do not track surface or air contacts across time | Coldstreams Business and Tech

Re-running this post with a few minor updates. Contact tracing apps do not track surface or air contacts across time | Coldstreams Business and Tech

Bluetooth-based contact tracing apps are incapable of detecting close contacts across time.

Example: Someone sits on a bus or at a coffee shop seat, coughs, and then leaves, 30-60 seconds later a new person takes that seat, has direct contact with the seat, plus inhales the aerosolized viral particles and droplets expelled by the person who coughed. BLE-based phone apps are 100% incapable of detecting this close contact.