(Note – this whole post needs a big editing. As new information came in, updates were made, but that has led to a disjointed feel. Will see if I can spare the time to re-edit.)
In some parts of the U.S., it has been really, really hot – with some areas experiencing new daily record high temperatures, some all time highs, and some longest duration above selected temperatures (although those are misleading – see link to Prof. Moss’s explanation, way below in this post).
But the media is telling lies. Read on.
The best way to communicate climate change is with facts and logic, forming valid arguments. The worst way to communicate about climate change is to invent facts that are not true and use hyperbole and hype and make speculations that are not true. This results in the Never Cry Wolf problem leading to no one believing anyone.
Land Surface Temperatures of 140 to 180 degrees
You’ve seen the news reports this week:
- Temperature of 60 deg C (140 F) in Spain in the headline (but this was for the ground temperature)
- 80 deg C (176 degs) in Phoenix.
- “Seven people died” from pavement burns
As noted in this post, these are normal temperatures. In fact, Phoenix news media reported on the normal 180 deg F surface temperatures in 2021 and 2022 (See below). The “seven people died” is from 2022, not 2023.
Most of us have no idea what a normal ground surface temperature looks like – because until this summer, ground temperatures were almost never reported. We are familiar with air temperatures – but when air temperatures were merely typical summer high air temperatures, the media began reporting “land surface temperatures” – which sound really high but which are almost always in the normal range. But most of us do not know this because we’ve never looked at ground temperatures before.
On Saturday, July 22, 2023, I measured the asphalt road temperature in front of my house.
- At 3:30 pm, the current outside air temperature is 90 deg F. Humidity 17%. Sky conditions clear.
- The road surface temperature is 161 deg F.
- The surface temperature was measured using a Mastercool Infrared Thermometer, the same unit used by the National Weather Service in Las Vegas (see here including more of my temperature measurements).
- Other items measured ranged from 108 deg F for white painted wood siding on the house, to 123 deg for gray colored wood siding, to almost 140 degrees for nearby concrete. 3/4″ gray gravel measured 150 deg F.
In Phoenix, where air temperatures have been 20 degrees hotter than where I live, the surface temperature was reportedly 80 deg C/176 deg F. That’s 16 degrees F hotter surface temperature with a 20+ degree hotter air temperature.
80 deg C temperatures in Phoenix are NORMAL in the summer as reported by the media itself in 2021 and 2020 (links presented below to reports in past years).
Update: On 7/24/2023, a CNN news report notes that 180 degree surface temperatures are normal in Phoenix in the summer, and are often 60 degrees hotter than the air temperature, and (presumably) correctly notes there have been more burn injuries this summer due to the lengthy string of days of high temperatures so far. Why couldn’t the media report this correctly from the beginning?
Has there been an increase in heat/pavement burns?
There were no differences in reported pavement related burns during high heat from a 1995 peer reviewed study to a 2019 study even though ambient temperatures averaged 2 deg F higher. As the author’s note, there were very few studies documenting pavement burns prior to 1995 – this does not mean they were not happening – only that no studies were being published (until the ClimateCrisis). The 1995 study examined pavement burns in Maricopa County, Arizona.
Their conclusion IN 1995:
Conclusion: During summer days in the desert, pavement is often hot enough to cause burns and does so with regularity in the southwestern United States. No one should be allowed to remain in contact with hot pavement, even transiently.
Why did pavement burn injuries increase sharply in recent years?
There is a reported increase in the number of pavement burns in recent years – in 2022, this was blamed on a sharp increase in the homeless population – and specifically that climate change was not a factor (see details below). What changed between the media’s 2022 reports and 2023?
NPR’s 2022 Report on Phoenix Pavement Burns
What did NPR say about Phoenix pavement burns in 2022?
NPR reported this was due to an increase in the homeless population living on the streets. (This links to Maine Public Radio but it’s originally an NPR story by a reporter when she lived in Phoenix.)
DAVIS-YOUNG: County records show heat deaths are increasingly occurring outdoors among unhoused people. About 60% of cases involve substance use.
DAVID HONDULA: My interpretation is the increase is much more related to what’s happening with social services than it is related to climate.
Lack of homes for people are leading to more burns from hot pavement in Phoenix
David Hondula, Ph.D., is a professor at ASU, with a doctorate in environmental science, and is also Director of Heat Response and Mitigation for the City of Phoenix. He is an expert on this topic in Phoenix.
After telling us in 2021 and 2022 that heat related pavement burns are caused by an increase in the homeless population – and not climate change – in 2023, the media now tells us this is due to climate change.
What changed from 2022 to 2023 to make this abrupt switch in causation?
Heatwaves and Science
Prof. Cliff Moss of the University of Washington, a professor of atmospheric sciences, says the heatwaves are not due to climate change and offers a detailed explanation for why he says that: Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Is Global Warming Causing Massive Heatwaves? He says widespread media coverage of longest string of days above 110 degrees is misleading and does not tell the full story. Why, he asks, 110 degrees and not, say, 112 or 115 degrees? Read his column to see why.
Other scientists claim the localized heat waves and high temperatures are clearly global climate change: Climate change role in July heatwaves ‘overwhelming’, scientists say | Reuters
I have no way to judge this – except to note we have numerous “experts” contradicting each other. Yet if one is confused by these contradictions, we are the ones who are idiots and seeking clarification is proof we are “climate deniers” (that wording was originally chosen specifically to link it to Holocaust Deniers – that’s how propaganda messaging works!)
New York Times of London Editor Spreads Misinformation
Below, Esther Bintliff is and editor at FT and will be the new incoming editor of the New York Times London edition. She shares this report on her Twitter account implying this is the situation in 2023 – but what she shares is actually from 2022.
Bintliff got this right: “This is not a forecast for 50 years time, it’s happening today” that she quotes from her current newspaper.
She’s right, it is not a forecast for the future – because it happened last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, and in 2018 (and again in 2018), 2017, 2017 again, 2016, and in 1995.
Yeah, it’s like this has never, ever happened before. Hah hah.
How Hot Was the Pavement in 2021?
Exactly the same as 2023!
As a dangerous heat wave grips much of the western US, doctors say that sidewalks, roads and other surfaces can get hot enough to cause serious burns in a matter of seconds.
The Arizona Burn Center – Valleywise Health in Phoenix warns that these surfaces can reach temperatures of 180 degrees Fahrenheit in the state’s brutal heat.
Intense desert heat can cause serious pavement burns in seconds, doctors warn | CNN
They’ve known for decades that summer heat of Phoenix can cause pavement burns. This is not new.
The seven people who died, died in 2022 or in 2020
(This section updated). The 7 who died, died in 2022 according to a press release from the Arizona Burn Center: 2023 Arizona Burn Center “Streets of Fire” Report Highlights Dangers of Extreme Heat (valleywisehealth.org)
Last year [2022], the Arizona Burn Center recorded 85 admissions from heat-related burn injuries in June, July and August. Seven of those patients died from their injuries.
Per the 2023 press release, that was in 2022. Esther Bintliff (and others) implied these numbers referred to 2023.
The original press release from the burn center, above, clearly and unambiguously states this was in 2022.
The Desert Sun reports, in a 2021 story, that seven people also died in 2020:
It shows up in emergency rooms like the one at the Arizona Burn Center in Phoenix, where director Dr. Kevin Foster said 104 people were admitted in June, July and August 2020 with serious burn injuries due to contact with scorching surfaces. Seven people died.
Doctors warn of burns from asphalt as heatwave hits Southwest (desertsun.com)
However, the original Arizona Burn Center press release for 2020 pavement burns makes no mention of “seven people died”: Arizona Burn Center Warns of Serious Burn Injuries in Summer (valleywisehealth.org)
Those are the only sourced claims of seven deaths in Phoenix due to pavement heat, and it’s from the entire summer of 2020 and 2022, not July in 2023. And the report of 7 deaths in 2020 does not exist in the original press release – where did that come from?
UPDATE: As of July 26, 2023 the Arizona Burn Center reports that TWO people have died from pavement burns. Not SEVEN.
Bintliff is a newspaper editor – she has access to fact checking resources and is paid to get it right (by comparison – this is a hobby blog written by an amateur brain injured idiot – I admit I make mistakes and do my best to correct them when found. I updated this section when I found the press release from the Arizona Burn Center.)
The Media’s Disinformation Campaign Violates Their Code of Ethics
The media’s misinformation of the past week, through inappropriate reporting of normal ground surface temperatures as abnormal ruins their credibility. The media has much to answer for – but they won’t respond. What they are doing is either a propaganda campaign or traditional yellow journalism – it is not truth seeking. This is propaganda – you can read more about how the media admits it launched a ClimateCrisis propaganda campaign – here.
They appear to be violating journalism’s code of ethics.
A loss of trust leads to bad decisions: Dr. Hans Rosling on the problem of exaggerated claims, false urgency, leading to bad decisions on climate change policy – Social Panic
Exaggeration, once discovered, makes people tune out altogether.
The most effective way to present climate issues is with truthful facts and logical arguments, not hyperbole, exaggeration, and making claims and speculations that cannot be supported. Perhaps they could learn something from re-reading Never Cry Wolf?
Footnote
There is no current report that seven people died from pavement burns in July of 2023 other than vague media reports, citing no source. As above, this almost certainly came from the 2023 press release issued by the Arizona Burn Center, and was incorrectly attributed to 2023 when the release was about 2022.
WaPo says 425 people died of “heat associated” deaths in 2022 just in Maricopa County – a huge increase from prior years (the NPR story from 2022, above, says this is due to an increase in the homeless population).
Yet Maricopa itself says only 18 people have died of heat related causes in all of 2023 up through July 15th. This is also the number quoted by AZCentral news: Arizona weather: Live updates on record Phoenix heat wave (azcentral.com)
UPDATE: July 26, 2018 – a total of 25 have died, associated with heat. Maricopa counts both “Heat Caused” and “Heat Related”, but combines them both into a “Heat Associated” number. “Heat Associated” means the death could be due to the heat, or was not the primary cause of death. Of the 25 deaths reported as of July 25, 2023, 18 were “Heat caused’ and 7 were “Heat related”.
“Heat associated” per the Maricopa government Department of Public Health, means “heat” was a factor but not necessarily the cause of death. “Heat Related” means “contributing but not directly resulting in the death sequence”.
The latest data shows the number is similar to last year. But many more deaths remain “under investigation”.
According to an analysis by the county, substance use played a factor in more than 65% of last year’s heat-related deaths
7 more heat-associated deaths confirmed; 249 under investigation in Maricopa County (azfamily.com)
Note the AP headline – like all news media, the AP is the Daily Doomer and focused on doomerism even though – so far, this is better than last year:
As of this date, last year, 38 had died of heat related causes, versus 25 so far this year. But perhaps they processed death reports faster last year?
What is a heat associated death?
Maricopa County adds together heat-caused deaths, in which heat or heat exposure is listed on the death certificate as the primary cause of death, with heat-related deaths, in which heat exposure is listed as a secondary cause.
The collection of reports are inconsistent and contradictory. Until July 26, there was no mention of anyone having died of pavement burns so far in 2023 – yet the media was falsely reporting seven deaths before any deaths were reported.
The CDC estimates about 700 people die of heat related causes each year in the entire country. If 60% of all heat deaths in the entire nation occurred in Maricopa County in 2022, this is an explosion of heat deaths and Maricopa County has problems, perhaps, as previously reported, due to an expanding homeless problem. But, as noted, Maricopy County says just 18 have died of heat issues, in 2023 as of July 25th (now).
NOAA says heat kills more than cold kills but the CDC says cold kills more than heat. Both claims cannot be true simultaneously. In fact, other studies quoted in that link found up to 15x more people died of cold than from heat.
The inconsistencies and contradictions across studies and media reports call into question all reports.
Can someone make this make sense? I’m just a brain injured idiot who is disgusted with inconsistent, contradictory, incoherent. illogical gibberish.
With none of this making sense, with numerous contradictions and inconsistencies, the media industrial complex comes across as bull shit. There is no polite way to label it any other name.
Is it too much to ask the media to provide consistent, non-contradictory, well sourced reporting which explains discrepancies in their reporting from one year to the next?
Update: The media’s reporting on climate has turned into religion – with some saying climate change is God’s way of punishing humanity for our past sins. Wow. They say to question any aspect of climate media coverage is a sign of mental illness – seeking truthful and accurate understanding is something that should be treated medically and addressed through “the manipulation of language and thought”. The future is dystopian but not because of climate change ….
If climate science cannot be questioned, then it is not a science. Skeptical inquiry is fundamental to the search for truth through the scientific method.
Asking the media to address inconsistencies and contradictions in their own reports does mean we are “climate deniers” – it means we seek the truth, which is what the media pretends to pursue.
Calling those who ask reasonable questions “deniers” is an act of bullying and name-calling.
The media’s climate apocalypse implies the ClimateCrisis is not fixable and we will all soon die of climate catastrophes. If that is true, then why should we do anything about it? We will die of it anyway. The media makes no logical sense.
I started studying propaganda back in 2014 – the climate discussion in the media has devolved into a large scale propaganda effort using all tools and techniques of propaganda developed in the past 120 years – and goes beyond the science understanding and level of certainty or, lack of certainty. It is definitely not news reporting.
What is the media doing and why are they doing this?
Note – In the 21st century it is tough to practice factfulness, to ask reasonable questions, and to try and understand the actual details. Unfortunately, noting inconsistencies and contradictions is, in the 21st century, forbidden and results in being name called as a “denier”, even if that is not the case.
