All posts by EdwardM

“Not Many Places Left For COVID-19 Virus To Evade Immunity” through mutation

The normal progression of viruses.

There aren’t many places left for the COVID-19 virus to mutate and evade immunity as it will only get weaker with time, said the creator of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, the most widely distributed jab in the world.

Source: Not Many Places Left For COVID-19 Virus To Evade Immunity, Says UK Vaccine Creator Sarah Gilbert

Would have been helpful for this info to have been published widely to the public a while back, among media fear mongering of each variant is going to be worse.

Yep: When the pandemic ends

I’ve been saying this but I am a brain injured idiot with no relevant experience:

Pandemics only truly end through immunity – via vaccination or acquired by having the disease (or the virus mutates into a less lethal form). NPIs never bring an end to the disease, they only delay the inevitable.

Follow up: “Surge expected after labor day”

Leading up to Labor Day weekend (Sep 4, 5 and 6), the “experts” warned us of a “Surge expected after Labor Day” as people would congregate and not wear cloth facial coverings when hanging out with friends and neighbors.

Health experts fear a post-holiday COVID-19 surge could already be brewing, after several days of potential super spreader events.

Source: Labor Day weekend: Health experts fear COVID-19 spike

What actually happened

Sep 1, 2021 was the peak day for the 7-day moving average. The peak occurred before the Labor Day weekend and has gone down since.

Nearly every “super spreader” event the “experts” predicted, never happened. Remember, Christmas? Cases were actually trending down just prior to Christmas and collapsed in January. Remember Superbowl weekend? That too was to be a super spreader. But cases continued to collapse. Various football games last winter and again this fall have been proclaimed as super spreaders – but they were not.

The track record of forecast superspreader events has been awful and leads many to think the experts have no clue.

Sturgis SD motorcycle event was also forecast as a superspreader – and SD’s epicurve, like many other states, did start climbing around then. But that is more random correlation. Many states that had no large events were also rising. The Sturgis event has several hundred thousand attendees – but only 5% come from South Dakota. Four states send more attendees than South Dakota, for example (SD’s population is pretty small). It likely did lead to a number of new “cases” but not as a superspreader.

Well: “Models Predict A Steady Decline In COVID Cases Through March”

My state’s health and science university issued a report in late August projecting that by the end of 2021, about 90% of the state’s residents will have been vaccinated or acquired immunity by having had Covid-19. At which point, the pandemic is mostly over with.

On that notes comes this new model:

The delta surge appears to be peaking nationally, and cases and deaths will likely decline steadily now through the spring without a significant winter surge, according to a new analysis shared with NPR by a consortium of researchers advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Source: Is The Worst Over? Models Predict A Steady Decline In COVID Cases Through March | WBUR

But note that disease models have had the accuracy of astrology, so there’s that too.

The end point to a pandemic is immunity – either via vaccination or acquiring immunity by having had the disease. Vaccination is a safer approach than having Covid.

Hmmmm: Scientists planned to released modified coronavirus into bat caves in China

Hmmmm. Not sure what to make of this yet.

Wuhan and US scientists were planning to release enhanced airborne coronavirus particles into Chinese bat populations to inoculate them against diseases that could jump to humans, leaked grant proposals dating from 2018 show.

Source: Wuhan scientists planned to release coronavirus particles into cave bats, leaked papers reveal

How the elite travel in a Covid world: Book two trips and cancel one

Sophisticated global travelers now book two trips around the same time – just in case Covid restrictions cancel one of them. Then cancel the one they don’t take. Geesh.

Hoping that COVID-19 would be more under control by the time of her trip, Corbin booked a surprise trip for her mother to India, Nepal, and the Maldives for February 2022. As COVID worsened in India, she became worried that the trip wouldn’t be safe by then. “I decided to book a backup trip to a closer destination,” she says. So she’s booked a trip to Costa Rica for the same month.

Source: Travelers Hedging Bets With Double-Bookings

Only those of us who are travel inexperienced brain injured idiots find this amazing. I had no idea this is how it is done…