All posts by EdwardM

Appalling: Vermont demands school children snitch on their parents

Advice to all children – you have a Fifth Amendment right to remain silent and not answer their questions:

Next week, when children return to school, their regular daily health checks will include questions about whether they attended gatherings outside their households, Gov. Phil Scott said Tuesday.

Any students who attend events with more than just their immediate household will be required to take online classes for a two-week quarantine period, or to quarantine for a week and then have a negative COVID-19 test, Scott said.

Source: Vermont schools will ask students if they celebrated at home

Asking children to snitch on their families is appalling.

Continue reading Appalling: Vermont demands school children snitch on their parents

Already proven false: “Study: If 70% of people wore masks, the COVID-19 pandemic would end”

According to my state’s public health department, in a report issued on October 8th, the state had an 84% face mask compliance. According to CMU’s COVIDcast research project, my state now has an 89% compliance rate.

Their research also found that nationally, there is an 89% compliance rate (and that included areas that had no face mask mandate).

The green line shows what happened in my state – face masks have been required since July 1. In other words, the study was provably false the day it was published.

Continue reading Already proven false: “Study: If 70% of people wore masks, the COVID-19 pandemic would end”

Possibly good news?

Too early to tell but as I observed earlier, the slope of the curve has been flattening.

Caveats: This is a holiday week and it is possible fewer people got tested or there is a delay in reporting – the CDC does not seem to draw a similar chart of total tests administered or total number of people tested (one person can have multiple tests so both data points should be observed). Second, with much holiday travel, some think new cases will increase again in another week.

Not surprisingly, as deaths lag new cases (you get sick, you may be hospitalized, you may go to an ICU, you may die), deaths are increasing as they lag behind the peak in new cases. The news media will turns its focus to a daily count of deaths increasing – their primary function is to keep society in constant state of fear and anxiety.

Also, the Kinsa model map has dropped to 9 states having an accelerating trend. This is down from near 20 a couple of weeks ago.

Globally, here are charts from WHO.

For USA, alone – WHO’s charting also suggests the US has just passed its peak in the 3rd wave.

On a separate chart, the Americas are tracking about 2 weeks behind Europe, which peaked about 2 weeks ago. Of course, we have no way of knowing if the holiday activities will cause a resurgence – the experts say it will but they’ve been wrong about much so far.

Everyone is noticing the lack of logic in public health orders

From the US Supreme Court ruling yesterday, to this article in The Atlantic or this one in Wired – all find that public health rules are arbitrary, lack supporting evidence and are generally incoherent – and as life has shown us, do not even work.

The rules are routinely ignored by public health officials, politicians and other elite members of society. It’s as if they all know its a hand waving charade to pretend they are doing something to stop the virus from spreading.

Update: Today, the Guardian notices the lack of trust problem too. And it’s spot on. Cite the evidence, or if you have uncertainty be honest about that. Don’t just make stuff up on the fly (which much public health is doing). The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette weighs in the nonsensical pronouncements too.

Many people have begun to notice – public health has lost credibility – and the people are losing interest in participating in the charade.

When health authorities present one rule after another without clear, science-based substantiation, their advice ends up seeming arbitrary and capricious. That erodes public trust and makes it harder to implement rules that do make sense—for this pandemic and any future public health matters.

https://www.wired.com/story/a-lack-of-transparency-is-undermining-pandemic-policy/

A lot of this goes back to what I wrote a couple of weeks ago – “Sell, don’t tell”.

Most people do the right things when they understand the issues and appropriate responses. But there was never any selling, only telling, and lot of it turned out to be illogical, inconsistent, contradictory and incoherent nonsense, thereby losing the trust of the people that are needed to “do the right thing” on their own.

Combined with the lengthy list of the elite who ignore their own rules, why should are we surprised that the public has become fed up with public health nonsense?

As people have lost faith in the “experts”, we’ve gone from the inappropriate “telling” of things that do not work to now arresting people. Los Angeles is shutting off water and power to homes of alleged rule violators. The police in my state, have been asked to arrest people for non-compliance.

At this point, government itself has lost credibility and legitimacy in the eyes of many.

At the end of the day – or year – public health has utterly failed.

Heh – the day the Covid-Dead come back to life

Have lost track of the count – about half a dozen of the dead have became undead or a later declared not a Covid-death.

A couple of weeks ago, OHA proclaimed the tragedy of the then 814 “preventable deaths” in the state. Hmmmm. At least 8 of the 14 dead in my County were, in fact, in patients receiving pre-Covid hospice care at the time of their death. Public health thinks that we should have prevented these hospice deaths? Ouch. But what do I know?

Good news then? “CDC warns eight COVID-19 infections missed for every one counted”

Which means we really are on the verge of “herd immunity” within weeks:

The record surge in coronavirus cases across the US is likely far worse, with an estimated eight infections unreported for every one infection counted, according to a government report — which would put the true tally closer to 100 million.

Source: CDC warns eight COVID-19 infections missed for every one counted

Update: The above news article may be incorrectly reporting the CDC report. The 8x factor is for a period of Feb-Sep, and due to expanded testing, the multiplier may be much lower in the most recent periods.

The new estimate means we are adding 800,000 to 1.6 million to the tally every day in the past couple of weeks, and likely continuing for several more weeks.

Population immunity occurs when the virus has fewer targets to infect, making it harder and harder to continue spreading. While some say that “herd immunity” occurs at 60-80%, other papers say that estimate is flawed and it could occur at far lower levels as that original estimate assumed everyone had an equal likelihood of spreading the disease, which is not true.

Update: Australian study estimates 6.2 times more cases than found through testing. They examined 15 countries and concluded that, depending on country, actual rates of infection were from 2.6 to 17.5x higher than reported. According to their model, only about 20% of cases have been caught via testing, in the U.S. (Which if asymptomatic case spread is real, and few are ever caught, then contact tracing seems to be superfluous.)

Either way – a range of 6 to 8x more cases means getting closer to a stage where the virus will have a harder time propagating.

Brilliant: New Mexico shuts down businesses having 4 or more employees test positive within 14 days

The criteria – four – is independent of employer size and whether the employee contracted Covid-19 at work or off the job. If an employer has 4 or more workers test positive within 2 weeks, the employer is closed for two weeks. There’s a list if you want to see the impact – as of 11/25/2020, the list shows 5 Walmart stores and their Distribution Center exceeding the threshold.

Any “food and drink establishment,” “place of lodging,” “retail space,” or “essential business” (other than those which meet the definition of a healthcare operation, utility, or media service) in which members of the public regularly visit, must immediately close for 14 days if there are four or more rapid responses within the last 14 days.

https://www.env.nm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020-11-13-Updated-FAQs.pdf

The effect is that New Mexico is closing grocery stores. What could possibly go wrong?

Source: State shuts down dozens of essential businesses because of COVID cases

A forecast as good as any other: Coronavirus Prediction Dashboard

This forecast site suggests the 3rd wave peaks in December – this is based on the patterns observed in other countries.

Source: Coronavirus Prediction Dashboard

For all the politicians and social media hemming and hawing over “if only people wore their face masks” (89% already do nationally in the U.S.) and “if only we had a different politician in charge” (all the other countries that are experiencing the same thing have a different politician in charge) … and so on … we are seeing the same patterns in nearly all countries.

The only thing that explains this, it seems, is that most of the pandemic policies have little to no effect. The virus does what it does in spite of, not because of, the policies.

Hypocrites: The Elite who ignore quarantine orders they enforce on everyone else

Knowing this would be an historic event, back in March I started taking notes – copious notes. I’ve only shared 1-2% of what I have collected.

In this very long list, I kept track of the “elite” who violated their own Covid-19 Executive Orders, rules, policies, regulations – because rules are for the peons and not the elite. If you wonder why NO ONE is listening to public health and more elite executive orders, just scan this list – because none of them are listening to their own orders.

In reviewing this list, today, I grew fed up and regard everything Covid-19 related as crap at this point. The messaging is inconsistent, contradictory and frequently incoherent.

Click on the “Continue reading…” item to read the full list and see the details. Their behavior is appalling.

This list is updated frequently – there’s no shortage of arrogant elite who are flaunting their own rules – and then bitching that the public isn’t following the rules!

  • Neil Ferguson, architect of the UK’s lockdown and egregious violated lockdown rules
  • NYC City Mayor Bill De Blasio
  • Chris Godley, Director of Emergency Management
  • Dominic Johnson, UK Chief Advisor
  • Chris Cuomo, CNN
  • George Stephanopolis
  • Dartmouth Medical Center health care professionals
  • VA Hospital professionals and administration
  • Gordon Ramsey
  • Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Chicago
  • Karyin Polito, Lt Gov of Massachusetts
  • Gretchen Whitmer, Gov. of Michigan
  • Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, public health doctor and academic
  • Gov Ralph Northam, Gov of Virginia
  • Dr. Tom Frieden, former CDC Director
  • Dr. Catherine Calderwood, former Chief Medical Officer of Scotland
  • Judge Bill Gravel, Texas (who violated his own direct order)
  • Gov. Kate Brown, Gov of Oregon
  • Contra Costa Public Health Department
  • Mayor London Breed, San Francisco
  • Oregon State Troopers
  • Rep. T.J. Cox, California
  • Bill Morneau, former Finance Minister of Canada
  • Mayor Jim Kinney, Philadelphia
  • City of San Francisco government
  • Gavin Newsom, Gov of California
  • Corey Lewandoski, Chief Advisor to the President
  • Margaret Ferrier, Member of the Parliament, UK
  • Stanley Johnson, father of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson
  • Rep. Nancy Pelosi
  • Donald Trump
  • Members of U.S. Congress
  • Tootie Smith, Chair, Clackamas County Commissioners, Oregon
  • Gov. Gavin Newsom, California
  • Lawmakers and lobbyists from 4 states including California and Washington holding a 100 person attendee conference in Maui in violation of nearly everyone’s Directives.
  • Reporters who take their face mask off once the cameras stop rolling
  • Oregon politicians who traveled off to Mexico and Hawaii during travel restrictions
  • Dr. Sharon Meieran, ER doctor and Multnomah County Commissioner who tweeted from her vacation in Hawaii that people must stay at home, and then defended it by saying she’s a doctor and qualified to violate the rules
  • Denver Mayor Michael Hancock
  • Windsor, Ontario Mayor Drew Dilkins
  • New York Democratic Leadership meets for a party and violates all the rules

THIS LIST WILL BE UPDATED

Continue reading Hypocrites: The Elite who ignore quarantine orders they enforce on everyone else

It’s official: Only healthy people allowed to fly

Airlines are an Americans with Disability Act-free zone:

It should be noted that all airlines mentioned recommend that any customers who cannot wear face coverings due to a medical condition or disability should postpone their travel until the temporary mask requirements are no longer in place.

Source: Airline rules for face masks | kgw.com

I have twice written to my elected representatives opposing further airline bailouts. Airlines want all taxpayers to bail them out while simultaneously restricting flights to healthy individuals only. Airlines are free perhaps, to restrict access on their own dime, but not on the taxpayers dime.

Recently, Delta kicked a hearing impaired person off a flight after his masked slip and he could not hear the flight attendant (nor see her mouth move because – masks!) who notified him of the mask falling down below his nose. The airline was notified of his hearing impairment and shown his two hearing aids but crew didn’t care and kicked him off the plane. The CEO later apologized to the customer (airlines have forgotten what “customer” means) but asked him to remove his video from social media.