All posts by EdwardM

Group advocates color coded Covid alert system, with volume set up to 11

Yep. Set the knob to 11 because other’s don’t go that loud:

Resolve to Save Lives, proposed a four-tiered, color-coded system ranging from “4 — Red — Very High Risk” to “1 — Green — Lower Risk.” Given the scale of transmission in the US at the moment, these levels may not be enough. A fifth level — an emergency circuit breaker call to action — may be needed to slam the breaks and stop transmission, in order to protect hospitals and health care workers from becoming overwhelmed.

Source: We need a nationwide Covid alert-level system to save lives and restore jobs, former CDC director says – KTVZ

When the evidence shows most actions have not worked, long term, the solution is to do more of the same, only now in Technicolor! Because the virus doesn’t like colors (or apparently daylight, hence the night time curfews!)

The slope of the epicurve is starting to fall

The slope of wave #3 is still rising but it is gradually beginning to reduce indicating a slowing growth rate.

From looking at epicurves of many states, it can be observed that there is about a ten week (70 day) period from wave trough to peak before the curve begins to drop. Many states have passed this point and are now in declining numbers of new cases, per day. Other states, like mine, came to this 3rd wave late – and may yet rise for another week or two. There are indications (from someone else) that we may see a smaller increase in total cases in my state this week, likely flat topping on the curve very soon. We hope so.

The effects of Thanksgiving are not known – some think there will be another large wave as a result of holiday travel. We will certainly out in early December and then again in January.

Deaths will likely climb for a few more weeks.

At around 200,000 positive test results/day, and the assumption by many states that 5x to 10x more people have the disease without being tested (due to asymptomatic or common cold symptoms being ignored), we might be seeing 1 million to 2 million new cases per day. Wow, that’s a a lot!

This implies population immunity effects might begin to take hold as the virus finds fewer targets to successfully infect and use as a vector to pass along to others. Some scientists have suggested that the UK may reach a population immunity level as early as mid-December. Hope that proves true and that the situation is similar in the U.S.

Qantas will mandate Covid-19 vaccination prior to international flights starting sometime in 2021

A separate news story, however, says Qantas may not resume international flights until July of 2021:

Australia’s national carrier Qantas will require future international travelers to prove they have been vaccinated against Covid-19 before flying.

Source: Qantas to require Covid vaccinations for international flights | CNN Travel

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects to roll out a digital IATA Travel Pass in Q1 2021, which would hold a secure record of your vaccination history (including potentially other vaccinations), and even support a future digital passport.

Fewer states show ACCELERATING trend

Good news – we are down to only 10 states showing an “accelerating trend”. A few weeks back when I checked this, the map showed nearly 20 states in “accelerating” new cases.

Good news – most of the red states in the center of the country have peaked and are starting to decrease. There seems to be about a 70-day period from wave trough to peak.

Bad news – nearly all states are in the “high” category in terms of cases per 100k population, based on the Kinsa Covid Map.

While VT and ME are still “yellow” status compared to red states, even they are seeing significantly increasing cases. These are examples, as many states are, of states that were previously described as having done everything right – until it was no longer right, apparently.

These outcomes are mostly the same regardless of public health measures undertaken – as if the virus does what the virus does, in spite of, not because of, public health mitigation.

How Oregon’s test metrics flew off the rails

As seen by this chart that I created, Oregon’s public health officials method of calculating positive test results flew off the rails.

The number of tests given is shown by the blue line (except it was actually a count of number of unique people tested, not total tests). Up through early October, the total number of tests testing positive correlated with the total number of tests. Give more tests, get more positive test results (there were also other reasons for positive tests to go up).

In the middle of October, the correlation began to fly off the rails, revealing an error in how Oregon has been calculating the positive test results. I mentioned this in an earlier post but I thought this chart, which I had already been keeping, would highlight the problem.

(Chart title is incorrect – as we now know, the data was total individuals tested one or more times, not total tests, versus Positive Test Results.)

Oregon, unlike the CDC and apparently every other state, calculated the percent positive rate from

Number of positive tests / number of distinct individuals tested

This ignored that many people receive more than one test, and more than one positive test. In the past month, the official positivity rate in Oregon was TWICE the actual rate. Yet this became the basis for public policies.

Update: These errors cause a loss of credibility and trust in public health. To restore trust requires an aggressive push to total transparency and clear, unambiguous explanations for policy choices. Their “Tell, don’t sell – just trust approach” has failed. And when they don’t know the answer, say so – don’t just make things up.

Continue reading How Oregon’s test metrics flew off the rails

Good news

Those who have had MMR vaccine (measles, mumps and rubella), and in particular, the mumps vaccine, may have protection against more severe forms of Covid-19. (What about weird people like me who actually had both measles and mumps?) They theorize this could be why younger people have fewer cases and less bad outcomes – because so many have had the MMR vaccine.

Those who received a TB vaccine in the past may also have a form of protective immunity to Covid-19.

Finally, researchers have developed a simple nasal spray that coats virus particles inside the nose so that the virus is unable to penetrate into human cells.  Because the two common compounds are already approved for use, this could be deployed and distributed quickly once trials are completed.

There are several othernasal sprays in development too.

I had no idea: Chocolate is regulated

In the UK, chocolate confection manufacturers are under the rule of law to reduce sugar in chocolate products by 20%.

This is to reduce childhood obesity, allegedly.

I had no idea chocolate was a regulated product. You will not be permitted to eat unregulated chocolate while locked in your home wearing a face mask – but better to wear a face mask and look like a criminal while eating the wrong kind of chocolate, I suppose 🙂

Here in the U.S, the FAA’s proposed Remote ID for drones rules says the FAA can regulate the air space inside your own home. Seriously. Turning our lives over to “experts” is out of hand.

89% of the U.S. is wearing face masks where required

According to research at CMU, 89% of those surveyed wear a face mask, as required.

Source: Home – COVIDcast – Delphi Research Group – Carnegie Mellon University

When a public health official says that “if 95% of people wore a face mask, this pandemic would be over within weeks” they are telling you a straight up lie.

With 89% compliance, cases have exploded nationwide months after high compliance face mask mandates went into effect. Compliance varies by state – but is has high as 97% with 90+% being common in many states.

Continue reading 89% of the U.S. is wearing face masks where required

“A pizza worker’s lie forced an Australian state of 1.7 million people into lockdown”

Public health is the butt of its own joke, but its not very funny:

A pizza bar worker with Covid-19 who lied about their employment activities triggered a lockdown across the entire state of South Australia, authorities were forced to admit Friday.

Source: A pizza worker’s lie forced an Australian state of 1.7 million people into lockdown – CNN