Yep. Set the knob to 11 because other’s don’t go that loud:
Resolve to Save Lives, proposed a four-tiered, color-coded system ranging from “4 — Red — Very High Risk” to “1 — Green — Lower Risk.” Given the scale of transmission in the US at the moment, these levels may not be enough. A fifth level — an emergency circuit breaker call to action — may be needed to slam the breaks and stop transmission, in order to protect hospitals and health care workers from becoming overwhelmed.
When the evidence shows most actions have not worked, long term, the solution is to do more of the same, only now in Technicolor! Because the virus doesn’t like colors (or apparently daylight, hence the night time curfews!)
The slope of wave #3 is still rising but it is gradually beginning to reduce indicating a slowing growth rate.
From looking at epicurves of many states, it can be observed that there is about a ten week (70 day) period from wave trough to peak before the curve begins to drop. Many states have passed this point and are now in declining numbers of new cases, per day. Other states, like mine, came to this 3rd wave late – and may yet rise for another week or two. There are indications (from someone else) that we may see a smaller increase in total cases in my state this week, likely flat topping on the curve very soon. We hope so.
The effects of Thanksgiving are not known – some think there will be another large wave as a result of holiday travel. We will certainly out in early December and then again in January.
Deaths will likely climb for a few more weeks.
At around 200,000 positive test results/day, and the assumption by many states that 5x to 10x more people have the disease without being tested (due to asymptomatic or common cold symptoms being ignored), we might be seeing 1 million to 2 million new cases per day. Wow, that’s a a lot!
This implies population immunity effects might begin to take hold as the virus finds fewer targets to successfully infect and use as a vector to pass along to others. Some scientists have suggested that the UK may reach a population immunity level as early as mid-December. Hope that proves true and that the situation is similar in the U.S.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects to roll out a digital IATA Travel Pass in Q1 2021, which would hold a secure record of your vaccination history (including potentially other vaccinations), and even support a future digital passport.
Good news – we are down to only 10 states showing an “accelerating trend”. A few weeks back when I checked this, the map showed nearly 20 states in “accelerating” new cases.
Good news – most of the red states in the center of the country have peaked and are starting to decrease. There seems to be about a 70-day period from wave trough to peak.
Bad news – nearly all states are in the “high” category in terms of cases per 100k population, based on the Kinsa Covid Map.
While VT and ME are still “yellow” status compared to red states, even they are seeing significantly increasing cases. These are examples, as many states are, of states that were previously described as having done everything right – until it was no longer right, apparently.
These outcomes are mostly the same regardless of public health measures undertaken – as if the virus does what the virus does, in spite of, not because of, public health mitigation.
As seen by this chart that I created, Oregon’s public health officials method of calculating positive test results flew off the rails.
The number of tests given is shown by the blue line (except it was actually a count of number of unique people tested, not total tests). Up through early October, the total number of tests testing positive correlated with the total number of tests. Give more tests, get more positive test results (there were also other reasons for positive tests to go up).
In the middle of October, the correlation began to fly off the rails, revealing an error in how Oregon has been calculating the positive test results. I mentioned this in an earlier post but I thought this chart, which I had already been keeping, would highlight the problem.
(Chart title is incorrect – as we now know, the data was total individuals tested one or more times, not total tests, versus Positive Test Results.)
Oregon, unlike the CDC and apparently every other state, calculated the percent positive rate from
Number of positive tests / number of distinct individuals tested
This ignored that many people receive more than one test, and more than one positive test. In the past month, the official positivity rate in Oregon was TWICE the actual rate. Yet this became the basis for public policies.
Update: These errors cause a loss of credibility and trust in public health. To restore trust requires an aggressive push to total transparency and clear, unambiguous explanations for policy choices. Their “Tell, don’t sell – just trust approach” has failed.And when they don’t know the answer, say so – don’t just make things up.
Those who have had MMR vaccine (measles, mumps and rubella), and in particular, the mumps vaccine, may have protection against more severe forms of Covid-19. (What about weird people like me who actually had both measles and mumps?) They theorize this could be why younger people have fewer cases and less bad outcomes – because so many have had the MMR vaccine.
I had no idea chocolate was a regulated product. You will not be permitted to eat unregulated chocolate while locked in your home wearing a face mask – but better to wear a face mask and look like a criminal while eating the wrong kind of chocolate, I suppose 🙂
Here in the U.S, the FAA’s proposed Remote ID for drones rules says the FAA can regulate the air space inside your own home. Seriously. Turning our lives over to “experts” is out of hand.
When a public health official says that “if 95% of people wore a face mask, this pandemic would be over within weeks” they are telling you a straight up lie.
With 89% compliance, cases have exploded nationwide months after high compliance face mask mandates went into effect. Compliance varies by state – but is has high as 97% with 90+% being common in many states.
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