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All posts by EdwardM
Transportation: How EVs are more efficient than ICE vehicles – power on demand and regeneration
ICE vehicle engines, except in hybrids and PHEVs, run all the time.
In an EV, you only consume power when you need power. This makes an EV ideal for city driving. When you stop at a traffic signal, your engine stops.
When you brake in an ICE vehicle, your engine keeps running as your forward momentum is converted into heat by the brakes. This means you consume fuel all the time and the kinetic energy is basically thrown away (by turning it into heat instead of future forward motion).
In an EV, when you brake, you are generating electricity. Essentially all EVs have regenerative braking capabilities. Your kinetic energy is stored for future use.
When you climb a hill or mountain pass in an ICE vehicle, once you get to the top, you can coast downhill, but the engine is still running at idle, at a minimum. Your potential energy is translated, partially (not 100% efficient of course), into kinetic energy of forward motion – but chances are that you’ll either use braking (converting kinetic energy into wasted heat) or engine braking (similar).
In an EV, once you have climbed to the top, your vehicle generates electricity on the downhill side, adding miles back into the battery pack. This converts your potential energy back into future forward miles.
As we note below, EVs weigh much more than ICE vehicles. Consequently it takes more energy to lift them up mountain passes, but with the ability to recover some of that energy on the way back down.
Transportation: The large dead weight of EV batteries
The 2020 Honda Fit (using ICE) and the 2020 Chevy Bolt (EV) are nearly identical in capacity and general specifications – except for one very notable item:
2020 Honda Fit – image from Honda web site
2020 Chevy Bolt EV – image from Chevrolet web site:
The two cars are amazing similar with nearly identical cargo space, with or without the back seats up or down. The Fit includes a spare tire, the Chevy Bolt does not.
The biggest difference – the price and weight of the vehicles.
- The 2020 Honda Fit starts at about $16,000 and weighs 2,522 to 2,648 pounds depending on options and version.
- The 2020 Chevy Bolt EV starts at $37,000 and weights 3,563 pounds.
- A Tesla Model 3 weighs over 4,000 pounds.
The Bolt EV weights almost 1,000 pounds or 38% more than the Honda Fit.
Why? The battery. The energy density of EV batteries is very low relative to gasoline. EV makers have to use large batteries to achieve a range of 200 to 300 or more miles.
When we consider the overall energy efficiency and emissions of the two vehicles, we should note the inefficiency of carrying nearly 40% more weight for a small reduction in lifetime emissions:
Update: I wonder what impact the heavier weight of EVs has on roadway surfaces? Weight has long been considered a major factor in the degradation of roadway surfaces. If we transitioned the entire automotive fleet to vehicles weighing 30-40% more, what effect does that have on roadways and what are the costs associated with those effects?
Continue reading Transportation: The large dead weight of EV batteriesTransportation: Electric vehicle depreciation
Electric vehicles are said to depreciate in value 10% more than internal combustion engine vehicles over 3 years. When I looked at used EV listings recently, I was surprised to see 1 year old EVs had decreased by 25% or more in value from their original purchase price.
Electric vehicles depreciate in value by approximately 60% after three years! 10% more than their fuel guzzling counterparts.
On the plus side, purchasing a 1 year old used EV might be a good value!
Virtue signaling may play a role:
Firstly, those tech nerds who want to have new technology before anyone else are a big chunk of the market. Honestly, if you don’t own a brand new Tesla, are you even worth knowing?
Improvements in the tech in new cars may cause older vehicles to lose value more quickly:
Electric vehicles are evolving year on year, so technology from last year has already been improved on. If you’re only interested in cutting edge innovation, last year’s model is suddenly not good enough.
Source: Electric vehicle depreciation | Lightfoot
Each new model of EV tends to increase its range over the prior model. It might only be 10% more range but since “range anxiety” is a big deal for many, every little bit makes the newer car more attractive, lessening the demand for last year’s model.
The range issue popped up as I investigated the used market – would I want a 1 to 2 year old EV with less range than the newer model? Another concern is buyers may not have a good way to evaluate the remaining life time capacity of the EV’s battery. Do you want to start with a used EV that’s already lost 10% of its battery capacity? (Watched a Youtube video last night of someone who had bought, and knew when he bought it, that the battery capacity was running 10% less than a new version of the vehicle with a new battery.)
Anyway, the overall effect seems to be reducing demand, and hence prices, for used EVs.
Software: Why hiring professional software engineers might have been a good idea #IowaCaucus
Oh my:
It wasn’t so much that the new app that the Iowa Democratic Party had planned to use to report its caucus results didn’t work. It was that people were struggling to even log in or download it in the first place. After all, there had never been any app-specific training for his many precinct chairs.
No training? This points to a lack of common sense and systems analysis at the start of the project. How was this missed?
Further, they likely had not created use cases, which would have caught the next set of failures.
So last Thursday Mr. Bagniewski, the chairman of the Democratic Party in Polk County, Iowa’s most populous, decided to scrap the app entirely, instructing his precinct chairs to simply call in the caucus results as they had always done.
The only problem was, when the time came during Monday’s caucuses, those precinct chairs could not connect with party leaders via phone. Mr. Bagniewski instructed his executive director to take pictures of the results with her smartphone and drive over to the Iowa Democratic Party headquarters to deliver them in person. She was turned away without explanation, he said.
Source: ‘A Systemwide Disaster’: How the Iowa Caucuses Melted Down – DNyuz
I live in the state that featured Cover Oregon[1], a $450 million health exchange that never enrolled a single individual subscriber. It was a complete failure. Healthcare.gov received most of the media attention concerning large government failed software projects but several state projects also failed.
Both health exchange fiascos – and the Iowa Caucus disaster – point to over reliance on software and an assumption that more tech is always better. Tech can make things better, but only when qualified people are involved in all aspects of the project.
Update – my guess was correct says the NY Times:
Shadow was also handicapped by its own lack of coding know-how, according to people familiar with the company. Few of its employees had worked on major tech projects, and many of its engineers were relatively inexperienced.
Only 25% of precinct chairs were able to successfully install the app. Colossal failure. The system relied, in part, on “security by obscurity”, which never works.
Update: “They” have quite a history with failed software development. The Associated Press said it could not name a winner of the Iowa Democratic Party Caucuses.
Transportation: Self-Driving cars do not work in snow, ice and bad weather scenarios
Probably because most techies live in sunny and warm California, this has not yet been a priority:
“The complexity of winter weather is going to take an incredible amount of work for automation technology to tackle,” says Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at MIT specializing in autonomous driving. “Ice-weather conditions are incredibly difficult.”
Source: Snow and Ice Pose a Vexing Obstacle for Self-Driving Cars | WIRED
There has been a “sunny and warm” bias in much of the “techie” part of the auto industry. Most EVs – so far – are not designed for winter snow driving (versus, say, AWD SUVs). All EVs have no spare tire, which is sort of okay when you live in populated areas, but not good when living in areas without cell service and dozens of miles – even 100 miles – to the nearest service station. Part of the bias, of course, is solving the easier problems first. The last 20% is hard.
Transportation: LA Times suggests EV sales are primarily due to “coolness” factor
This is reminiscent of the Volvo study:
Some analysts think buyers don’t necessarily want an electric car when they buy a Tesla — they primarily want a Tesla, which has replaced the latest iPhone as the coolest accoutrement in Silicon Valley and similar cultural enclaves around the world.
Source: The only electric vehicles that have had success are Teslas – Los Angeles
Most EVs are not selling well – only Tesla has appreciable market share and sees year over year growth. Sales, they suggest, are due to the “coolness” factor and that Tesla sells a “lifestyle” image – versus people buying an EV for other reasons. Tesla is just cool to own.
A survey by Volvo, found that about 75% of buyers said virtue signaling plays a large role in purchasing an EV. Paradoxically they said that owning an EV “helps them to feel better about making less environmentally conscious decisions in “other areas of life. Oops.
Transportation: One-third of cars sold in U.S. no longer carry a spare tire
One third of cars sold in the U.S. no longer include a spare tire. Instead, they provide a limited puncture/sealant kit and a 12 volt air compressor. “Sealants” are convenient but extremely expensive to replace. Third party puncture kits are good for fixing a nail or screw puncture and the tire can be sequently repaired properly in a tire shop.
AAA notes that these kits only work for selected situations, and won’t work for big punctures, side wall problems, blow outs, or failed air valves. For that the manufacturers expect you to call for roadside assistance.
Which is great for AAA and insurance companies to sell you roadside assistance solutions.
Where you have cell phone service.
If you do not have cell phone service, you are stuck in the middle of no where until someone happens to come by and help you out. I’ve had 2 tire blow outs and one valve stem failure – but I had actual spare tires. I’ve driven in off road locations where it is even recommended that you carry two spare tires.
Continue reading Transportation: One-third of cars sold in U.S. no longer carry a spare tireTransportation: Other than Tesla, EV sales not doing well
EV sales have actually gone down year over year. And sales have gone well primarily where government offer deep discounts through subsidies.
Source: EV Sales Fizzle
The article blames cost, range anxiety, style and gas prices are low. A related issue, that I do not understand, is that auto makers, especially in the U.S. have abandoned the small vehicle market – they only make trucks and SUVs. Supposedly, few people in the U.S. want to buy small, fuel efficient, less expensive vehicles.
Not surprisingly, US auto manufacturers are planning a lot of very expensive, very big, SUV-type EVs in 2020.
Continue reading Transportation: Other than Tesla, EV sales not doing wellTransportation: Tesla cars do not have a spare tire
No spare tire. No jack. No lug nut removal tools.
Most drivers are expected to call for Tesla Roadside Assistance. A few, I see, carry tire puncture repair kits and/or sealant, and a small air compressor, to potentially make a tire functional and drivable until the puncture is properly repaired. And that may work for simple punctures.
Tesla’s expectation is you’ll call for help and they’ll send a truck out to lift you on a flatbed to a repair center, or send a truck out with a jack and new tire – the environmentally inefficient way to get a spare! And Tesla, apparently, does not repair flat tires – they replace the entire wheel, which can cost up to $800 or more, according to some online posts (if you do not have a service/warranty policy in effect). It does appear that tire shops might be able to do the repairs for you at lower cost.
What if you have a tire blow out, or a valve stem failure (both have happened to me) – and you are in the middle of no where? What if this happens where you have no cell phone service? Puncture repair kits are useless for these situations.
Being in the middle of no where without cell phone service is common in the mountainous west. 50 minutes traveling on the state highway to my west we then lose cell phone service for about an hour of travel. Headed east, there’s almost no service for 100 miles, then service in one small town area, then no service for another 75 miles.
Continue reading Transportation: Tesla cars do not have a spare tire