Under intense pressure from the vaccine privileged, vaccine passports will be launched and used, at least by business, very soon.
Iceland and Hungary already have a “lite” version; Denmark announced it will be launching one in early 2021. The International Air Transport Association has one in Beta test and said it may be launched in March.
The head of one of the standards groups said “vaccine passports will be launched within weeks not months”.
It’s not just for travel. Denmark says they expect theirs to be used by Event/festival/concert organizers. Every event organizer, and possibly including museums, private travel, etc, will do this because of liability so they can open.
Businesses and the vaccine privileged who want to get on with life are already pressuring organizations to make this happen.
And those who may not be eligible to receive a vaccine until the end of 2021 or later become 2nd class citizens cut off from society.
And just like that, Los Angeles County has a pseudo vaccine passport, although it is not yet clear where you might use it.
The United States reportedly needs about 75% of people to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
With the current vaccination rate, the U.S. would reach that number by February 2022. That’s if the current pace of vaccine distribution — 914,000 per day — is maintained. With that pace, all US adults would be vaccinated by summer 2022.
However, if the U.S. inches up to releasing 1 million shots per day, herd immunity could be reached by the end of 2021.
Why did it take until now for the “experts” to figure this out?
“C’mon, give me a break, man,” President Biden told a reporter Thursday, when asked if his goal of getting 100 million Americans vaccinated in his first 100 days is too modest. “It’s a good start, 100 million.” Biden was right that when he “first made this pledge, it was an ambitious goal,” Politico’s Renuka Rayasam writes. “But now it’s only a modest bump from the pace of vaccinations that he inherited,” and experts agree it won’t cut it anymore.
“At a pace of 1 million doses a day, the virus wouldn’t be contained until sometime in 2022,” Politico reports. Peter Hotez, a vaccine expert at the Baylor College of Medicine, said the U.S. needs to vaccinate 2-3 million people a day to quash the pandemic by September, and the sooner the better, given the rise of new, more contagious variants. “We’ve blown every other opportunity,” Hotez said. “This is all we have left.”
The innovations in therapeutics will start to cut the death rate, but the true end will come from the spread of natural infections and the vaccine giving us herd immunity. For rich countries, that will be sometime next year, ideally in the first half. We’ll get out of this by the end of 2021.
Interventions largely do not work and this was well known long before Covid-19.
Given the element of time, nearly everywhere has ended up at the same destination.
Public health, though, wanted to be seen doing something so there was much hand waving, many restrictions, educations ruined, businesses and workers bankrupted and criticizing the public for “not complying”.
The problem is that not everyone has succeeded in extracting the alleged extra dose from each vial:
In December, pharmacists made the happy discovery that they could squeeze an extra vaccine dose out of Pfizer vials that were supposed to contain only five.
Now, it appears, the bill is due. Pfizer plans to count the surprise sixth dose toward its previous commitment of 200 million doses of Covid vaccine by the end of July and therefore will be providing fewer vials than once expected for the United States.
Are they seeking an exit strategy for the doom and gloom?
One possibility would be an echo of the 1890 pandemic: The virus slowly drops off as countries develop herd immunity due to a large majority of the population being infected or getting vaccinated. After anywhere from a few years to a few decades, it only circulates among children and rarely causes anything more serious than the sniffles.
Or the virus could be stamped out completely, or close to it, with vaccines. It could disappear like smallpox, or be pushed to such low levels in the U.S. that it shows up only in isolated clusters, as with measles.
Note – “few years” – typically 1 to 3 years, which we are at. The above report is surprisingly hopeful. About time we see a hopeful report.
Vaccines will be the final closure, so to speak, but many experts have suggested we have begun to see herd effects. Herd immunity (HI) does not mean the virus vanishes but as there are fewer and fewer targets for the virus, the pandemic gradually comes to an end.
Remember this? This was the tweet that started the “15 days to flatten the curve”. From the very beginning we knew this “may only delay cases, not prevent”.
Months later, they keep doing lock downs. If lock downs work, why do we have to keep doing them again and again?
Like the 1968 influenza pandemic, that pandemic ended before vaccines had been widely deployed. This seems a possibility with Covid-19.
Remember, I am an idiot with no health care experience. I do not make predictions. I make observations and ask stupid questions.
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