I live in Oregon, which is possibly one of the last states to endure a “wave”. From the data I track, it looks like – but too early to say for sure – that the rate of change in the growth rate reversed at the end of last week. As the growth rate nears zero (the 1st derivative) we reach the peak and then we see declines after that. The hospitalization peak will lag.

It also looks like the positivity test rate may have begun to decline as well.

These conclusions are weak and preliminary – need a few more days of data.

Oregon kept rates relatively low, compared to other states, possibly due to luck and demographics. But like many other states, it too saw a 4th “wave” or “ripple”. Last week, about 25% of adults were fully vaccinated and 37% had 1 or 2 doses of vaccine. I have observed that around 30+/-% we see a bending in the case curve. Oregon may be lucky and already be peaking.

Much of the state goes back into “Extreme Risk” on Friday. Of course, these new restrictions will be credited for having started the decline that began the week before 🙂

In other good news, deaths in Oregon, when corrected to actual date of death and not the day it was reported, is about 1 death per day now. That’s probably less than a bad influenza year. This would also be consistent with the majority of those over 65 being fully vaccinated.

By EdwardM