This information comes from the CDC ACIP recommendations updated on December 20, 2020. The suggested dates, in parenthesis, are my estimates based on best available information. See here for my original analysis and expectations on vaccine availability.
These are CDC recommendations – each state may set its own priorities and schedules so this could be different depending on where you live. In addition, vaccines are allocated to states by their percentage of the U.S. population. Because the “prioritized groups” in 1a, b and c are not distributed randomly across the states, some states will end up with more vaccine than is necessary to meet their 1a, 1b and 1c goals – while others will end up with too little. Thus, the date you become eligible can vary considerably based on the state you live in.
See CDC ACIP PPT slide 10.
Vaccine Allocation Planning Model.
Phase 1a (24M) (Dec to Feb/Mar)
- Health care workers and the institutionalized elderly.
Phase 1b (49M) (Feb/Mar to Spring)
- 30 M “front line workers” in specific occupations – meat plants, food and agricultural jobs, grocery stores, prisons, transit/transport, manufacturing, teachers, USPS workers, police/fire/EMS.
- 19M adults age 75 and older
Phase 1c (129M) (Spring to Summer)
- Adults 65 and older
- Adults 16 to 64 with high risk conditions
- “Essential workers” including media, construction, non-teaching education staff, daycare, finance, IT, public safety engineers (assume this means government employed engineers only), “legal” sector, food service, energy and logistics (shipping). Oddly does not include general “retail” front line workers.
Total: Up to 202 million people
No recommendation yet for Phase 2 categories to reach the remaining 126 million people in the U.S. Additionally, no vaccine has yet been approved for children under age 16 (this is expected in the summer of 2021).
As of December 20th, the U.S. had publicly disclosed contracts for delivery of vaccines to 150 M by June 30th. The news reports say the estimated numbers in each group have removed overlap between groups.
Update December 23, 2020
The US announced it has reached an agreement with suppliers for doses for an additional 35 M by June 30th and 15M more by July 31st. This brings the total to 200M by end of July, enough doses for 2/3ds of the U.S. population. This tends to confirm the estimated times lines above – mid to late summer before we start giving vaccinations to the general public.
The US Secretary of Health and Human Services assumes that a very large percentage of the U.S. population does not want to get a vaccine
“This new federal purchase can give Americans even more confidence that we will have enough supply to vaccinate every American who wants it by June 2021,” Azar said in a statement Wednesday.
By June 30th, we now have doses available for 185 M for the 202 M in the Phase 1a, 1b and 1c groups. Obviously, HHS is now hoping that fewer people want the vaccine while Fauci is simultaneously saying 75 to 85% need to take the vaccine. More inconsistencies in public health.
How Will You Know When it is Your Turn?
Or conversely, how can you “prove” to a provider that you fall into one of the groups 1a, 1b or 1c? This is not obvious.
The NY Times notes that Belgium will mail an “invitation” letter to residents when it is their turn. This of course assumes that the government can know your personal situation.
At this point, I doubt I will be vaccinated until the Fall of 2021. There are far too many inconsistencies in the statements and numbers for public health to meet their publicly stated delivery goals – and many of us will be among the last persons in the nation eligible to receive a vaccination.
Continue reading CDC announces priorities for vaccinations in Phase 1a, 1b and 1c