Follow up: Utah’s case numbers to quadruple, says model
August 5, 2021 Projection -> Cases to quadruple by October in Utah Vaccination and masks are key to keeping children safe from COVID-19 as they return to school, Utah state…
Follow up: Nebraska Garth Books Concert in August 2021
This was forecast to be a superspreader event. Like all superspreader forecasts, this one was wrong. I marked a red line on the chart indicating when the concert occurred. There…
Follow up: We won’t have enough pediatric hospital beds for Covid patients
Projection from December 2021: Actual Result There were a few states that had high numbers of pediatric patients (many or most of which were, as later reported, incidental cases of…
Follow up: Unlikely to see variants that spread faster than Delta
October 2021: Graven said he’s also preparing for the possibility of another variant. “There will be a day where some variant will probably you know be something that kind of…
Follow up “The [2021] fire season is going to be worse than last year”
“This fire season is going to be worse than last year,” the vice president said. Source: Harris drops by her local fire station on 4th of July – Axios Actual…
Follow up: 1 million deaths in India by August 2021 – Coldstreams Business and Tech
As noted in my previous follow up on this failed projection, as of Nov 2021, there had been 459,000 total deaths in India. By May 1, 2022, there have been…
Follow up: Disease modeling for Ontario, Canada
Another moment in accurate disease model projections: When Ontario lifted public health protective measures in March, the expectation was that we might see a small but manageable bump in COVID-19…
Follow up: “Feb 1, 2022 – Infections will rise in Norway”
On Feb 1, 2022, the Chief of Norway's National Institute of Public Health said that "infections will rise when restrictions are lifted" and there would be a new "wave of…
Follow up: “Oregon predicts staggering omicron infections, hospitalizations”
Follow up on Oregon's OHSU disease models for Omicron. Like nearly all models, this was wrong, off in space, as usual.
Follow up: “Trucker protest could become a superspreader event”
Like nearly all forecasts that predicted an event would be a "superspreader" for Covid, this one in Canada was wrong, like they all are.
Follow up on Czechia: “no question” their success was due to face masks
I save bookmarks of past forecasts for future follow up. Steven Kashkett of USA Today claimed in July of 2020 that Czechia proved face masks worked to stop Covid-19. He…
Follow up from February 2021: “And there you go: Pandemic should end by mid-year”
This forecast did not age well: And there you go: Pandemic should end by mid-year | Coldstreams Business and Tech
Follow up: “The epidemiologists Strike Back: Revenge of the Models Episode III”
In February, as cases were falling rapidly, the disease modelers projected a large rise in daily new cases starting as soon as May (but with a multi-month window), and caused…
Follow up: “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April” – 2021
This did not age well: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April – WSJ | Coldstreams Business and Tech
Follow up: 2021 Fire Season
Some forecasts in early summer suggested the U.S. would experience its worse fire season on record. This is a follow up with an early look back at what actually happened;…