Public health, Follow up: Yet another superspreader event that didn’t
FanX, a “comic con” like fan event, had up to 125,000 attendees over 3 days at the Salt Palace convention center in Salt Lake City, UT – Sep 22-24, 2022.…
Public health: CDC abandons use of “case” disease models
In October 2022, we have an update from the CDC – the CDC is discontinuing publishing “case” disease models due to their (repeated) low reliability: Forecasts of New Cases Ensemble…
Public health: Remember monkeypox?
I’m so old, I remember when an expert predicted everyone would have Monkeypox by July: Follow up: Monkeypox projection made May 24, 2022 – Coldstreams Then it was revised to…
Follow up: 2015 forecast for VR virtual reality market to hit $150 Billion by 2020
2015 Forecast: Augmented And Virtual Reality To Hit $150 Billion, Disrupting Mobile By 2020 | TechCrunch 2022 Forecast: Virtual and Augmented Reality Market Size 2022 By Trends (globenewswire.com) That’s $24.7…
Follow up: The Soviet economy will overtake the U.S. economy between 1984 and 1997
Samuelson was 100% wrong. For decades, since its 1961 edition, students of economics had read in Paul Samuelson’s textbook the following sentence: “The Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to…
Demographics:U.S. Fertility rate from 1800-2020
The U.S. fertility rate has been collapsing since 1800. The "baby boom" was a self-correcting anomaly. The impact of this is perhaps one of the most important issues facing humanity…
Follow up: 2022 PNW Fire Season “potential to be worse than last year”
July 28, 2022 – PNW fire season “to be worse than last year” What to expect this fire season Grant County Fire District 13 Chief Jim Stucky said that while…
Follow up: We were wrong about the economy, say the “experts”
To be fair, the “experts” have been wrong about almost everything the past two and half years. It’s known as the “Suicide of Expertise”. Georgieva added that economists were more…
Media notices disease model projections mostly worthless
Predictions about the pandemic rarely age well. In the United States, the pandemic appeared to be winding down in May 2021 amid a vigorous vaccination campaign, only to get wound…
Follow up: Monkeypox cases to hit 100,000 in August
First, we have this forecast from May which projected that everyone in the world would have monkeypox by the end of June. Not a parody. Self-described epidemiologist, nutritionist and health…