Follow up: “Surge expected after labor day”

Leading up to Labor Day weekend (Sep 4, 5 and 6), the “experts” warned us of a “Surge expected after Labor Day” as people would congregate and not wear cloth facial coverings when hanging out with friends and neighbors.

Health experts fear a post-holiday COVID-19 surge could already be brewing, after several days of potential super spreader events.

Source: Labor Day weekend: Health experts fear COVID-19 spike

What actually happened

Sep 1, 2021 was the peak day for the 7-day moving average. The peak occurred before the Labor Day weekend and has gone down since.

Nearly every “super spreader” event the “experts” predicted, never happened. Remember, Christmas? Cases were actually trending down just prior to Christmas and collapsed in January. Remember Superbowl weekend? That too was to be a super spreader. But cases continued to collapse. Various football games last winter and again this fall have been proclaimed as super spreaders – but they were not.

The track record of forecast superspreader events has been awful and leads many to think the experts have no clue.

Sturgis SD motorcycle event was also forecast as a superspreader – and SD’s epicurve, like many other states, did start climbing around then. But that is more random correlation. Many states that had no large events were also rising. The Sturgis event has several hundred thousand attendees – but only 5% come from South Dakota. Four states send more attendees than South Dakota, for example (SD’s population is pretty small). It likely did lead to a number of new “cases” but not as a superspreader.

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