That’s what they said about winter 2020/2021 too – how did that projection turn out?
now health experts are warning the public that there could be a very difficult flu season ahead too.
Disease projections are worse than useless. As mentioned previously, in my state, they did just 3 week projections. Of the 13 projections made from Oct 28 2020 to Jan 31 2021, 11 of them went in the wrong direction. That means, their model said cases would go up but they went down, or vice versa. Tossing a coin would have been more accurate.
Suggestion to public health: Crying wolf every day when the wolves don’t come doesn’t work long term. No one believes you anymore.