October 2021:

Graven said he’s also preparing for the possibility of another variant.

“There will be a day where some variant will probably you know be something that kind of beats previous immunity,” Graven said. “Then again we’ll hope that we have boosters and what not that will help lessen the load of that.”

Graven said it’s unlikely we’ll see any variants that are able to transmit faster than the Delta variant.

Source: OHSU projects COVID-19 herd immunity by mid-December

October 2021:

PORTLAND, Ore. (KPTV) – In a new COVID-19 forecast, OHSU projects we should reach herd immunity in Oregon by mid-December.

That OHSU forecast projects COVID hospitalizations will continue to decline and it shows about 22% of Oregonians are still vulnerable to infection.

Source: OHSU projects COVID-19 herd immunity by mid-December (msn.com)

November 24, 2021

Winter Covid surge unlikely in Oregon, says OHSU forecaster – Portland Business Journal (bizjournals.com)

December 17, 2021 – Predicts over 3,000 hospital beds in use for Covid-19 by peak in mid-February

December 23, 2021 – Revises prediction to 1,200 hospital beds in use for Covid-19

December 31, 2021 – Revises prediction to 1,650 beds in use with peak now in late January. Discontinues making their modeling report public. “If people wear facial coverings and avoid indoor gatherings, it could help to flatten the curve.” Right – Hah hah hah! Just 15 days to flatten the curve!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

December 30, 2021

Director of OHSU’s Office of Advanced Analytics, Peter Graven says we’re looking at a larger surge than the delta variant.

Two weeks ago, he projected almost 3,200 hospital beds in use at peak. One week later, the model projected about 1,200 beds in use at the peak. A week after that, 1,650.

March 2022

The peak came in at about 1,150 patients; OHA says about half of the “cases” were patients in hospitals for other reasons and were counted because all patients are tested for Covid-19, even when asymptomatic.

What is the purpose of these models?

  • They have demonstrated throughout the pandemic an accuracy of zero.
  • Their widespread use and publicity has created fear in the public; this has no benefits to the public’s health.
  • Incorrect projections were used to create policies and mandates that accomplished nothing to stop the spread of Covid-19 – but the policies caused actual harms.

By EdwardM

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