Experts: Why Experts are Almost Always Wrong
Source: Why Experts are Almost Always Wrong | Smart News| Smithsonian Magazine Expert prediction accuracy is often worse than if random guesses were made. The reason they are bad is…
Follow up: “Forecasters predicted a trace of snow, then Portland set an 80-year record”
Yet another triumphant success of models: Forecasters predicted a trace of snow, then Portland set an 80-year record. What happened? – oregonlive.com As my son mentioned to me, “all models…
Follow up: Authoritarianism is Necessary
When dueling celebrity epidemiologists met social media, a catastrophe occurred: a complete loss of trust in science itself.
Follow up: Disease model projection, March 17, 2020
In the first 3 months, Neil Ferguson’s disease model projected: Every item projected by Neil Ferguson’s team was wrong, immensely wrong. Neil Ferguson recommended the UK’s lockdown strategy, but then…
Follow up: 3 vax prevents infection and transmission & with masks, risk is near zero
Let’s preserve this for posterity. He’s an MD, MPH. Trust the Experts. As usual, the public health experts were wrong. About everything. And they wonder why no one trusts them…
Follow up: “…no question … Czech Republic’s remarkable progress … was the result of requiring an entire society to wear face masks.”
July 2020: There is no question that the Czech Republic’s remarkable progress on COVID-19 was the result of requiring an entire society to wear face masks. Source: How Czech Republic…
Follow up: If people don’t get the bivalent booster, Covid will skyrocket in early 2023
Look at this chart from the White House on October 11, 2023: Source: Biden administration extends COVID public health emergency – Los Angeles Times This chart, at right of the…
Public health hilarity: “Has California avoided another devastating winter COVID wave?”
The holiday superspreader meme was wrong (as all expert projections have been). This was due to “the power of the tools” available to California public health – like wearing masks…
2nd Follow Up: RSV, Flu and Covid all trending downwards
A rough respiratory virus season in the US appears to be easing, as three major respiratory viruses that have battered the country for the past few months are finally all…
Follow up: “Will Thanksgiving make a bad season of respiratory illness even worse?”
The Experts’ Prediction: As the holiday approaches, infectious disease specialists are bracing for the possibility that big family get-togethers and travel will propel the spread of RSV, flu and COVID-19.…
Follow up: “Respiratory viruses could surge following the holidays, public health experts warn”
The experts could not get a 2-week disease projection correct. Scary expert projections of even the near future turn out wrong.
Followup: Economic forecasts were wrong, like most expert forecasts
As inflation surged over the last two years, the Fed and leading private-sector forecasters were persistently behind the curve, seeing it as a temporary phenomenon that would eventually fade. Source:…
Follow up: Norway Court drops charges against individual flying a drone over Svalbard
In response to Russia’s war on Ukraine, Norway banned Russian aircraft from flying over Norway, or the operation of non-Russian registered aircraft by a Russian citizen. The bureaucrats interpreted the…
Follow up: Expert prediction on monkeypox
I’m so old, I remember months ago when monkeypox would take over the world and we would all die. “Expert” Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, famous for urging closing of U.S. schools…
Follow up: Twitter will break in coming weeks
Nov 8, 2022: One insider says the company’s current staffing isn’t able to sustain the platform. Source: Here’s how a Twitter engineer says it will break in the coming weeks…