In the first 3 months, Neil Ferguson’s disease model projected:

  • 4-8% of all Americans over age 70 will die.
  • We will need 30 times more ventilators than are available in the United States
  • In the first 3 months, 2.2 million Americans will die from the virus, and a total 4 million Americans will die eventually of the disease.
  • 90 million people will die, globally, in the first 3-6 months.
  • If we go to lockdowns, only half as many Americans will have died – around 2 million total.
  • BUT – if we go to lock downs, we will reach a peak in just weeks. We then maintain lock downs until a vaccine is available and given to 100% of the population. But if we relax our lockdowns at any time, then Covid comes right back and kills millions of Americans.
  • If we go through alternating periods of lock downs, we can periodically lift them, and maintain suppression of the Covid spread indefinitely – or until vaccine is available.

Every item projected by Neil Ferguson’s team was wrong, immensely wrong.

Neil Ferguson recommended the UK’s lockdown strategy, but then he personally ignored it: when he contracted Covid in the spring of 2020, a short time later while still in the isolation protocol, he had a fling with his married girlfriend, whose husband was also on Covid isolation protocol, as she was supposed to be too. Because rules are for the little people and not the elite.

His disease model consisted of garbage code[1]:

More Experts:

Disease models proved themselves as worthless astrology: Disease models – Coldstreams. In the fall of 2022, the CDC discontinued distributing their ensemble disease model projections saying disease models had “low reliability” meaning even The Experts came around to thinking disease models were not very good.

Footnote

[1] I reviewed a version of Ferguson’s disease model. His code was garbage and unfit for any purpose whatsoever, let alone locking down the entire world. Many software reviewers were astonished at how bad his code was. I am qualified to assess his code: I have a BS in computer science, an MS in software engineering, and an MBA. I have worked in Silicon Valley, for Microsoft on the Windows team, and for other employers. I have also taught university courses in information systems, computer systems administration, and have authored about a dozen books, most on software development.

Coldstreams