Oregon’s disease models wrong for 11 out of 13 projections
Oregon only does short term disease modeling (about 4 weeks), via the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, WA. Their model projections have been wrong – way wrong – 11…
More time shifted data delays in epiastrology data
Note: Due to a delay in laboratory reporting, OHA received a large quantity of approximately 3,000 negative electronic laboratory results (ELRs) on Monday. The tests are from June 1, 2020…
And just like that: Timing of data reporting is a problem
As I discovered, and informed my state’s public health office about, the time shifting of death reports had incorrectly moved peaked deaths from Dec 9th into January. The state agreed…
Scientists warn over misuse of models
I’m so old, I remember Neil Ferguson’s projection of 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. by last spring, and Christopher Murray’s projection that NY would run out of ventilators (so…
Masks made no difference: “Transmission of COVID-19 in 282 clusters in Catalonia, Spain: a cohort study – The Lancet Infectious Diseases”
Epidemiologists remain stuck: Second, we did not find any evidence of decreased risk of transmission in individuals who reported mask use. Although this finding collides with the evidence reported elsewhere,8…
Remember the Sturgis, South Dakota “Superspreader event”?
The Sturgis South Dakota motorcycle rally was held August 6-15, 2020. We were assured that this would be a major super spreader event. This was emphasized by a study predicting…
Epidemiologists panic as cases continue to plummet
Kinsa Model This Week Kinsa Model Forecast Next Week Forecasts falling cases in all but 2 states. Both states had pretty strict rules. As the surge in good news continues,…
Another public health myth: Posting your vaccine card online can enable scammers to create phony cards
You can just download the original PDF file for the blank cards from public health web sites: By sharing photos of your card, you may be giving scammers information they…
Cool! Print your own vaccination record card!
Thanks to government public health offices, you can download a blank PDF copy of the vaccination record and fill it out for yourself 🙂 Face plant. You’ve got to be…
Who needs conspiracy theorists?
Who needs conspiracy theorists when we have this? Jeez. David Ismay, Massachusetts Undersecretary for Climate Change Speaking at a Vermont climate conference, Ismay said: “So let me say that again,…
Good idea: Electric School buses
For most bus usage, range is not an issue. They are probably quieter and are not idling when stopped to pick up kids, spewing diesel exhaust. The Beaverton School District…
EV Batteries in Winter
This topic is the subject of many social media posts. There is sort of a semi-official account that one loses 20-40% of range in the winter depending on type of…
The epidemiologists Strike Back: Revenge of the Models Episode III
Fearful of the damage that may occur from the continued surge in good news, epidemiologists are striking back. WE HAVE MODELS. Late last week, the Institute for Health Metrics and…
“Experts” warn of “exponential growth” of good news surge
The surge in good news is global. Epidemiologists are preparing counter measures.
California’s non-existent holiday surge
There was a surge in epidemiologists saying there would be a surge in post holiday cases of Covid-19. There was also a surge in news reports saying that California’s expanding…