My predictions are as worthless as anyone elses

I think my state (Oregon) peaked in new positive test results on Nov 21st, peaked in new hospitalizations on Nov 30th, and will peak on reported deaths within about a week or so. We hope.

According to WHO data, it looks like the U.S. peaked on new cases about the 3rd week of November.

The Kinsa model covid-map data also supports this.

Will there be a post-holiday “surge upon a surge” in new cases? I have no idea. I can only note that holiday air travel Thanksgiving week was in line with the ordinary weekly fluctuations in air travel we have seen during the air traffic recovery phase. There was no significant surge, which is contrary to the fake news headlines. There could still be increases in positive tests due to increased risks from other actions, of course.

My predictions are as worthless as anyone else’s worthless predictions. I am an idiot who has no expertise in health care. But I’ve made excellent investment decisions by acting on my own research and ignoring many experts. So there’s that.