Kinsa model down to just 3 states still in an accelerating trend and all 3 of those may now be in a downwards trend (too early to tell yet but just go to the web site, click on the state, and observe the curve). Most of the “red” states are now in a flat top or declining trend. Ignore the headlines referring to a “surge in new cases” – the CDC and WHO trendlines are also now in the downwards directions.

They may yet reverse, of course, as the holidays may have delayed reporting. Plus mid weeks reports tend to be much higher than the beginning of the week due to fewer tests and reporting delays on the weekends.

There may yet be effects from travel and household get togethers, although the forecast surge in air traffic was tiny compared to what they were expecting (+3.4% over prior week, +10% prior week, inline with the normal variation in weekly passenger loads).

Source: Kinsa HealthWeather™

By EdwardM