Putting an end to the “holiday surge” meme – there was none
Summary There were no holiday surges The acceleration in new cases flipped in mid November before the holidays On February 18, 2021, the UW’s Trevor Bedford reported Rt began declining…
Superbowl appears not to have been a “superspreader” event
Florida reported far fewer coronavirus cases in the week ending Sunday , adding 49,390 new cases. That’s down 12.7% from the previous week’s toll of 56,606 new cases of the…
UW IHME Disease astrologers issue “grim new forecast”
After many failed model projections, does anyone take the UW’s IHME’s astrologist’s forecasts seriously? If you do take them seriously, we’ve got 200,000 unused ventilators you can have. A grim…
Did not age well: “New York as model for fighting coronavirus”
Dr. Fauci, July 18, 2020: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci on Friday praised New York for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, saying the state…
Oregon’s disease models wrong for 11 out of 13 projections
Oregon only does short term disease modeling (about 4 weeks), via the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, WA. Their model projections have been wrong – way wrong – 11…
More time shifted data delays in epiastrology data
Note: Due to a delay in laboratory reporting, OHA received a large quantity of approximately 3,000 negative electronic laboratory results (ELRs) on Monday. The tests are from June 1, 2020…
And just like that: Timing of data reporting is a problem
As I discovered, and informed my state’s public health office about, the time shifting of death reports had incorrectly moved peaked deaths from Dec 9th into January. The state agreed…
Scientists warn over misuse of models
I’m so old, I remember Neil Ferguson’s projection of 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. by last spring, and Christopher Murray’s projection that NY would run out of ventilators (so…
Masks made no difference: “Transmission of COVID-19 in 282 clusters in Catalonia, Spain: a cohort study – The Lancet Infectious Diseases”
Epidemiologists remain stuck: Second, we did not find any evidence of decreased risk of transmission in individuals who reported mask use. Although this finding collides with the evidence reported elsewhere,8…
Remember the Sturgis, South Dakota “Superspreader event”?
The Sturgis South Dakota motorcycle rally was held August 6-15, 2020. We were assured that this would be a major super spreader event. This was emphasized by a study predicting…