Follow up: Nebraska Garth Books Concert in August 2021
This was forecast to be a superspreader event. Like all superspreader forecasts, this one was wrong. I marked a red line on the chart indicating when the concert occurred. There…
Follow up: We won’t have enough pediatric hospital beds for Covid patients
Projection from December 2021: Actual Result There were a few states that had high numbers of pediatric patients (many or most of which were, as later reported, incidental cases of…
Follow up: Unlikely to see variants that spread faster than Delta
October 2021: Graven said he’s also preparing for the possibility of another variant. “There will be a day where some variant will probably you know be something that kind of…
Follow up: 1 million deaths in India by August 2021 – Coldstreams Business and Tech
As noted in my previous follow up on this failed projection, as of Nov 2021, there had been 459,000 total deaths in India. By May 1, 2022, there have been…
Surely, mitigations and masks were super effective: “EU estimates up to 80% of population has had COVID”
Source: EU estimates up to 80% of population has had COVID
The “dueling experts” problem
Every day during the pandemic there are dueling “experts”. If the public is confused about inconsistent, contradictory and incoherent messaging, it is the public’s fault, of course. You are the…
So much for mitigation measures: “More than half of Americans have had COVID infections”
Following the record surge in COVID-19 cases during the Omicron-driven wave, some 58% of the U.S. population overall and more than 75% of younger children have been infected with the…
Follow up: Disease modeling for Ontario, Canada
Another moment in accurate disease model projections: When Ontario lifted public health protective measures in March, the expectation was that we might see a small but manageable bump in COVID-19…
Follow up: “Feb 1, 2022 – Infections will rise in Norway”
On Feb 1, 2022, the Chief of Norway's National Institute of Public Health said that "infections will rise when restrictions are lifted" and there would be a new "wave of…
Follow up: “Oregon predicts staggering omicron infections, hospitalizations”
Follow up on Oregon's OHSU disease models for Omicron. Like nearly all models, this was wrong, off in space, as usual.