As in 400% too high:

One of the most alarming charts presented by the government when it announced the latest lockdown on Saturday looked at a range of scenarios for the number of predicted deaths in England.

The worst projection suggested deaths could reach 4,000 a day – as the graph below shows.

But it now turns out that projection was out-of-date.

Source: Covid: The things we’re not being told as lockdown looms – BBC News

Disease modeling has not done well.

By EdwardM