As in 400% too high:
One of the most alarming charts presented by the government when it announced the latest lockdown on Saturday looked at a range of scenarios for the number of predicted deaths in England.
The worst projection suggested deaths could reach 4,000 a day – as the graph below shows.
But it now turns out that projection was out-of-date.
Source: Covid: The things we’re not being told as lockdown looms – BBC News
Disease modeling has not done well.