Follow up from February 2021: “And there you go: Pandemic should end by mid-year”
This forecast did not age well: And there you go: Pandemic should end by mid-year | Coldstreams Business and Tech
Follow up: “The epidemiologists Strike Back: Revenge of the Models Episode III”
In February, as cases were falling rapidly, the disease modelers projected a large rise in daily new cases starting as soon as May (but with a multi-month window), and caused…
Follow up: “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April” – 2021
This did not age well: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April – WSJ | Coldstreams Business and Tech
Another super spreader prediction that failed: School re-openings this fall
A few months back experts said opening schools would be a super spreader event. For the most part, like all super spreader predictions, this forecast was also wrong: New research…
Covid policies around the country
A majority of states do not require school students to wear face masks in school. A majority of states have ended their emergency declarations. Only 8 states still have indoor…
Follow up: Another superspreader forecast collapses
“I don’t think it’s smart,” Fauci said during a CNN interview after he was shown pictures of college football stadiums with maskless fans. “Outdoors is always better than indoors, but…
Follow up in 2022: The Christmas and Thanksgiving “superspreader” forecasts
I have seen forecasts that Halloween will be a superspreader so of course, Thanksgiving and Christmas are back on the list (neither were superspreaders in 2020 per the data): COVID-19…
Yet another superspreader forecast crashed and burned
Disease model forecasts make astrology look reliable: In the final weeks of this summer, with Covid-19 cases soaring and the rituals of autumn about to resume, many people assumed that…
Yet another superspreader event that wasn’t
It’s as if Crying Wolf at every opportunity has backfired and absolutely no one is going to pay attention to “expert” epiastrologists anymore: “While we have not linked any cases…
Another super spreader model fail
Disease models are essentially useless. Their primary value is to issue scary forecasts, that are wrong. Even when correct, they do not provide actionable value. “In August, we estimated there…