Locally (and typical of other areas), 40% of Covid-19 cases originate from a close family contact inside one’s own household.

Similar ratios seen in Santa Clara County, CA which has strict mitigation measures tougher than California requires.

If face masks work, shouldn’t public health demand that everyone wear a face mask 24 x 7 inside their own homes? If face masks work, this would knock out 40% of cases with a single public health mitigation measure.

Simultaneously, public health is telling us that winter is here and spending time indoors will make things worse – but they won’t mandate in-home face masks?

The evidence is overwhelming – public health must immediately mandate the wearing of masks inside personal homes 24 x 7.

“The virus is extraordinarily contagious and as the weather turns and we head indoors it’ll be more important than ever to practice preventive measures,” he [Oregon state epidemiologist] said, noting that wearing masks, practicing social distancing, frequent hand washing and only gathering in small groups are the best ways to prevent the virus from spreading.“The numbers are stark and show why we must take this virus so seriously,” he said.

Source: Coronavirus in Oregon: State reports 418 new cases, 6 new deaths as new modeling shows potential increase in spread – oregonlive.com

We are now into the ad hoc theory du jour phase of the pandemic. As Gary Taubes documented in “Good Calories, Bad Calories”, nutrition science came up with a theory that fat was bad and carbs were good. As evidence arrived that contradicted that simple theory, new ad hoc theories were created on the fly. How, for example, did we explain native Alaskans who ate high protein/high fat fish-based diets then? The ad hoc theory was that “fish oil” must be protective. As each new exception to the original theory – fats bad, carbs good – emerged, yet another ad hoc exemption was added to the theory.

That behavior is a sign of failed science.

We are now in the ad hoc theory phase of public health mitigation. As cases explode after mandated face masks, the new ad hoc theory is hospitalization and mortality are lower than last spring. Therefore, face masks must be protective by patients receiving a lower viral load, even though the number of cases are higher.

In reality, based on the data I charted from OHA, this trend in reduce hospitalization and mortality began last spring well our state mandated face masks.

Another ad hoc theory is that cases are exploding because people are not cooperating with mitigation requirement, like wearing masks. Except OHA’s own survey found 84% compliance with mask wearing.

Another very popular theory is that cases are exploding because Trump. Except new daily cases in Europe are now twice those in the U.S. So we need an ad hoc theory to explain this exception to that rule. It is likely that Trump is to blame for the rise in EU cases too.

Again, this behavior of ad hoc theories to explain every exception where the original theory no longer works is a sign of a failed science. Ad hoc theories mean the original theory is flawed.

By EdwardM