The NAR has released their annual report on home buyers – and it has a few errors. (I contacted the NAR and they got right back to me with some updates. Much appreciated.)
In 2025, half of Gen Z is age 21 or younger and most of Gen Z is not in the housing market yet – most first time home buying occurs around age 28-30 – an age at which the oldest Gen Z are just starting to reach.
But the NAR uses a different definition of Gen Z with the oldest being just 26 (in 2025).
| Gen Z | 1999-2011 | 18 to 26 |
“What stands out about Gen Z is how confidently they’re beginning to define homeownership for themselves,” Lautz said. “They may still be a small share of the market, but they’re already challenging old assumptions about who buys a home and when. For many of these buyers, marriage and children are no longer the defining milestones before a home purchase. The driving force is simply the desire to own a home of their own.”
Baby Boomers Remain Largest Share of Home Buyers as First-Time Buying Falls to Record Low
Their definition of Gen Z is not noted – there may be a reason to restrict to age 18 and up in terms of who might be a home buyer, but this was not disclosed. (NAR confirms they cut the lower bound of Gen Z at 18 since no one under 18 could buy a home.)
They also say the youngest member of Gen Z was 18 in 2025 – but 2025-2011, as shown in their table is 14. They cut the Gen Z demographic to ages 18-26 – and use a set of years they defined about ten years ago.
Demographic Issues
11-14% of the population had a college degree in the 1970s but today 40% of those age 25-34 have a degree. Going to college (versus going to work at age 18-20 in 1970) delays everything – marriage, family formation, and home buying. About 2 in 3 high school grads will start college today – with about 52% earning either a 4 year degree (40+%) or a combined 52% with AA/AS or 4 year degrees.
The NAR survey is based on a 120-question survey with a 3.5% response rate. How many young people had time to answer a 120 question survey versus older retired home buyers? A 120 question survey is likely a minimum 1 hour time commitment and may lead to a sample bias problem.
Today’s population demographics
We used to call these “population pyramids” because they were shaped like actual pyramids. But due to the declining fertility rate – and the aging of the very large “Baby Boom” cohort, this is what our population distribution looks like today.
Not surprisingly, the median population age in 2025 was almost 40.
Population demographics in 1980 – notice a difference?
The median population age until very recently was about 28-30. Today it is nearly 40. Almost the same as the median home buyer age.
NAR’s Generational Definitions
The NAR press release has this table at the end:
Their table says Gen Z is 1999 to 2011 – and says this makes them age 18 to 26 in 2025. The Pew Research Center defines 1998 to 2012 as Gen Z. 2025 – 2011 (the youngest) would make the youngest 14 years old, not 18 (or 13 using other standard definitions). (Per NAR feedback, they choose to cut this at age 18, instead of 11, to only represent potential home buyers.)
These ages are different than those used by most others. They also split the Baby Boom into two generations – “younger” and “older”. Others have done that too, often referring to the latter half as the “Jones” generation. But it is non-conventional.
The Silent Generation extends back to the age of Viking conquests – 925 to 1945!
