Oddly, no one predicted this to be a super spreader event – yet a similar size event in Sturgis SD a week later was forecast to be a super spreader. Mostly, AirVenture fell off the pundits’ radar projections. (Will look at SD rates in another follow up post later.)
(Update – while “superspreader events” were still forecast in 2022, the forecasts were getting less publicity as many of the prior forecasts were wrong. Even in the summer of 2022 there were “superspreader event” forecasts but there was not a significant increase in cases – and in fact, cases went down over the following month.)
Anyway, AirVenture was not a super spreader event. The first day of the weeklong event (July 25) is about where the red line is located. Cases in Wisconsin peaked the first day and continued falling ever since. Due to the incubation time it takes between contact and infection, a first day peak is due to contacts occurring the week before the event.
Charts is from the Wisconsin Covid-19 dashboard
The same pattern occurred on the national level too – thus, we cannot argue that maybe locals did not attend AirVenture (in fact, zillions of locals attend) and new cases would not show up there.
National cases trend
This is also a clue that the Sturgis motorcycle rally a week later had no impact on cases either.
“Superspreader” projections have been an enduring myth of the fraud of epidemiology.
