Covid predictions? These experts are done with them
As this blog has documented, disease models provided little useful information. Their primary purpose has been really scary headlines, without effective, actionable steps to take. In response to big scary model outputs, “experts” adopt more NPIs, which empirically, have not worked.
The UW IHME estimates 57% of the world’s population had Covid as of about two weeks ago, and that 60+% of the US population will have had it by March. 82% of my county’s population has had Covid by about mid-January. Apparently, all of our NPIs have not accomplished much.
Disease models have had the accuracy of astrology with the honesty of alchemy. Even the disease modelers agree their models have not been very useful and were frequently wrong.