This UK disease modeler says he only models worst case – and does not model most likely scenarios. The worst-case scenarios provide cover for the government to enact more restrictions, he says.
Similarly, Oregon’s disease modeler uses R-0 values of 6 and 8.5, far, far higher than the 3.0 to 4.0 range used by apparently everyone else in the world. This produces scarier model output. Below is the R-0 = 8.5 model output projection. The underlying OHSU report does not explain why he chose 6 and 8.5, much higher than values used elsewhere in the world.
As of last week, Oregon had about 4,700 staffed hospital beds – this model projects over 3,000 beds will be occupied by Covid-19 patients by early February.