Great news: Enough vaccine for all adults by June

Johnson & Johnson board member Dr. Mark McClellan said that there could be enough vaccinations for the entire U.S. adult population by June.

Source: There will be enough Covid vaccines for the ‘entire U.S. adult population by June,’ doctor says

J&J’s vaccine should seek EUA shortly and ready to ship by March.

AstraZeneca making progress on a new trial study in the U.S. to address the mistakes made during their Phase 3 trial. Could see their vaccine shipping in the U.S. by April.

Pfizer moved doses for 100M people from July 31st up to May 31st.


First vaccine passports are launched

These have come far faster than most expected. Many thought perhaps by mid-year but here we are …

V-Health Passport will shortly start its roll-out programme of health passport across a number of airlines and airports globally.

There are many reasons not to do vaccine passports – but there is tremendous pressure by businesses, organizations, some governments, and especially airlines to launch these as soon as possible.

The vaccine privileged do not want to waste away with the rest of us – they want to get on with life as soon as they can.

The vaccines only work if you post a selfie on social media

Why you’re seeing coronavirus vaccine selfies all over Facebook and Twitter – CNET

If you read the instructions, it says the vaccine will fail to activate unless you post a selfie on social media. For reals 🙂

At the end of the year, when I become eligible to be vaccinated, I’ll post a selfie of my vaccination on my social media – of course, posting your vaccination selfie will be so retro at the end of 2021 …

Predictable: Hunterdon Medical Center Gave COVID-19 Vaccine To Donors, Relatives Of Top Hospital Executives

The shots were administered by Hunterdon Medical Center in December and early January, at a time when only front-line health care workers and residents of long-term care facilities were eligible.

Source: Hunterdon Medical Center Gave COVID-19 Vaccine To Donors, Relatives Of Top Hospital Executives, Report Says – CBS Philly

Health care seems remarkably corrupt. Seems to be one or two of these reports daily now.


Continue reading Predictable: Hunterdon Medical Center Gave COVID-19 Vaccine To Donors, Relatives Of Top Hospital Executives

My little chart seems to have stirred up a hornet’s nest :)

The Oregon Health Authority stopped providing biographical details for each death, such as age, county, gender, date of a positive coronavirus test and date of death.

Source: Gov. Kate Brown’s office defends Oregon’s decision to end detailed COVID-19 death reports –

Here’s the chart that discovered the problem – red line is the accurate death tally, by date, but the green line is what the public was seeing. They’ve now fixed this by producing a chart similar to my red line – which is great. In fact, the new online chart subdivides this into age groupings too. But they also stopped releasing individual death details – such as the actual date of death. UPDATE: After a public uproar, they will restore much of the data going forward.

Vaccine availability for <65 likely mid to end of summer

‘We’re looking at probably middle of the summer, end of the summer before the average, healthy, young American has access to vaccination.’

Source: When can younger, healthy people get vaccinated? A former Biden COVID-19 adviser says it will be months – MarketWatch

These guidelines are funny – almost to the upper age bound, with 3 moderate risk factors (like age and lifetime asthma) but I’m a “healthy, young American”!

Cool!!!! I’m just 29 years old and holding, eh? 🙂

State Covid-19 outcomes randomly correlated with restrictions – or no restrictions

Higher up on this chart – towards the top – means your state has had bad outcomes. The Y-Axis is basically bad outcome at top, good outcome at bottom.

The X-axis is restrictions – few restrictions on the left and lots of restrictions on the right.

By choosing the color red for the upper left, this chart biases your System 1 style thinking to quickly draw the conclusion that few restriction states (on the left) led to bad outcomes (red circles at top left).

But put on your System 2 rational thinking cap please.

The green states had few restrictions and have done well.

The gray states at upper right had many restrictions – in fact, the most restrictions in the nation – and did very poorly.

There is little or no correlation between what states did and the ensuing outcomes.

I have frequently noted we must be cautious about the time dimension. Many states that did so well last year (e.g. CA), later became the worst in the nation in the winter time.

At this point, the time dimension becomes less important as the disease has spread widely now across most states.

The bottom line interpretation is: public health mitigation measures seem to have little impact. The disease did what it did, in spite of, not because of, public health mitigation measures like locking people up.

Source: Study: Wash. state 2nd most restrictive in nation for opening bars, restaurants | KATU

More good news: Novavax vaccine candidate looks good

This would be another vaccine offering available later in 2021 – more trials are still underway in the U.S.

Novavax Inc. said Thursday that its COVID-19 vaccine appears 89% effective based on early findings from a British study and that it also seems to work — though not quite as well — against new mutated strains of the virus circulating in that country and South Africa.

Source: Novavax vaccine seems effective against COVID-19 in UK study | KATU