It looks like first availability of vaccinations is not until summer of 2021.

What does that mean for when life returns to normal?

First availability means the start of vaccinating several tens of millions of people, which will take time.

Based on the above, these are the possible scenarios:

  1. Life returns to mostly normal at the end of summer of 2021
  2. The pandemic ends on its own by mid-2021
  3. Effective treatments become available, bringing most restrictions to an end
  4. The public says to hell with it and gets on with life.
  5. Some public health and political officials have implied we must reach for zero new cases and zero new deaths but that is a feat we have not achieved with influenza – and life goes on anyway. Once public health pushes this, we end up at #4.

I have canceled all travel plans through June of 2021 and am 50:50 on an outdoor event in late July. My guess is the organizers of the event may choose, by early spring, to postpone the event to end of August or end of September, based on better information by early spring of 2021.

By EdwardM

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