Disease models have been a fiasco from day one:
We can refer to a natural experiment in Sweden for some clarity. Sweden’s government did not lock down the country’s economy, though it recommended that citizens practice social distancing and it banned gatherings of more than 50 people. Swedish epidemiologists took the Imperial College of London (ICL) model – the same model that predicted 2.2 million Covid-19 deaths for the United States – and applied it to Sweden. The model predicted that by July 1 Sweden would have suffered 96,000 deaths if it had done nothing, and 81,600 deaths with the policies that it did employ. In fact, by July 1, Sweden had suffered only 5,500 deaths. The ICL model overestimated Sweden’s Covid-19 deaths by a factor of nearly fifteen.
Source: The Covid-19 Catastrophe – AIER
ICL’s model, was developed by Neil Ferguson, the architect of the UK’s lock down. He resigned after he was found to have had a tryst with his married lover while socializing was prohibited by his own lock down orders – and he had tested positive for Covid-19, himself shortly before.
Models have been a mess. Experts deeply critical of the ICL model.
