Fun with models
Disease model projections have proven close to worthless. Perhaps like a stopped clock, they might get close once in a while. Here is another set of models that blew up…
Revisting UW IHME’s Covid-19 projections
This part of the post was written on September 4th, but not published until December 30. On September 4th, the UW IHME disease modeling team projected 410,000 deaths in the…
Study: Travel restrictions only effective in first few weeks of pandemic, after that, useless
Travel restrictions, lock downs and face masks forever! Because reasons! Models have found that strict border closures could have helped limit viral transmission in the pandemic’s early days. But once…
Blaming the people, scolding us again
Just 10 days ago, the Oregon Health Authority said that the overwhelming majority of Oregonians have been complying with guidance and doing all the right things. But since cases are…
1968 flu pandemic
Was reading up on something else which led to this item on the 1968-1970 influenza pandemic. Very interesting. The 1968 flu pandemic caused illness of varying degrees of severity in…
Must see: Johns Hopkins Covid 19 Risk Tool
Source: Covid 19 Risk Tool from Johns Hopkins University The online calculator uses data to estimate your mortality risk, based on data for people with similar health situations as you,…
Models project everyone will have Covid-19 by mid-January, sort of
The UW IHME random number generator projects up to 1 million new cases on January 10th. MIT has their own forecast: Total active coronavirus cases in the U.S. are projected…
CDC says to wear a hazmat suit at all times, except inside your house
The CDC recommended Friday that people now wear masks in all indoor settings, with the sole exception of their own home, as part of a broad strategy to slow the…
While telling us to “Stay Home, Save Lives”, Oregon public health paid an activist group to support protests and mass spreader events
On March 27, 2020, four days after Oregon’s lock down when in to effect, the Oregon Health Authority issued a $145,000 grant to an activist group named SNACK BLOC, under…
My predictions are as worthless as anyone elses
I think my state (Oregon) peaked in new positive test results on Nov 21st, peaked in new hospitalizations on Nov 30th, and will peak on reported deaths within about a…