Follow up: Expert prediction on monkeypox
I’m so old, I remember months ago when monkeypox would take over the world and we would all die. “Expert” Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, famous for urging closing of U.S. schools…
Follow up: Twitter will break in coming weeks
Nov 8, 2022: One insider says the company’s current staffing isn’t able to sustain the platform. Source: Here’s how a Twitter engineer says it will break in the coming weeks…
Why it is a good idea to ignore expert predictions
Adjacent headlines on CNBC this morning
Public health follow up: Feigl-Ding’s Mother of God fear mongering Covid variants
Prediction: Actual: The blue line is Feigl-Ding’s prediction for Covid cases. The black line is what has actually happened combing all the variants. Full discussion –> Prof. Michael S Fuhrer…
Public health, Follow up: Yet another superspreader event that didn’t
FanX, a “comic con” like fan event, had up to 125,000 attendees over 3 days at the Salt Palace convention center in Salt Lake City, UT – Sep 22-24, 2022.…
Public health: CDC abandons use of “case” disease models
In October 2022, we have an update from the CDC – the CDC is discontinuing publishing “case” disease models due to their (repeated) low reliability: Forecasts of New Cases Ensemble…
Public health: Remember monkeypox?
I’m so old, I remember when an expert predicted everyone would have Monkeypox by July: Follow up: Monkeypox projection made May 24, 2022 – Coldstreams Then it was revised to…
Follow up: 2015 forecast for VR virtual reality market to hit $150 Billion by 2020
2015 Forecast: Augmented And Virtual Reality To Hit $150 Billion, Disrupting Mobile By 2020 | TechCrunch 2022 Forecast: Virtual and Augmented Reality Market Size 2022 By Trends (globenewswire.com) That’s $24.7…
Follow up: The Soviet economy will overtake the U.S. economy between 1984 and 1997
Samuelson was 100% wrong. For decades, since its 1961 edition, students of economics had read in Paul Samuelson’s textbook the following sentence: “The Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to…
Demographics:U.S. Fertility rate from 1800-2020
The U.S. fertility rate has been collapsing since 1800. The "baby boom" was a self-correcting anomaly. The impact of this is perhaps one of the most important issues facing humanity…