Stringency index studies find that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States in the spring of 2020 only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 3.2 per cent.
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Herby, Jonung, and Hanke conclude that voluntary changes in behaviour, such as social distancing, played a significant role in mitigating the pandemic – but harsher restrictions, like stay-at-home rules and school closures, generated very high costs but produced only negligible health benefits
Source: Did lockdowns work? The verdict on Covid restrictions — Institute of Economic Affairs
The usual counter reply is to argue “but we didn’t have real lockdowns”. But the reality is, if we did, they could have lasted a week or two at best. 70% of all workers are “essential”, and just 20 percentage points can do some work remotely. That means 50% of all workers must still be on the job, in person, to keep food coming, run deliveries of essential goods and services, provide repair and maintenance services (I had to replace a broken water pipe in the midst of our toughest lock down, while hobbling with a broken foot because my state shut non-life threatening health care access but car repair was okay!)
The reality is: lock downs cannot work for more than a very short time period, assume everything is done right. And since Covid exists also in animal reservoirs, all we accomplish, at best, if lockdowns work, is a short delay in cases. We do not prevent them nor do we end the pandemic.
