The first lesson (or valuable reminder at least) is this: no one has a crystal ball. It’s not so very long ago at all that every story about demographics was focused on fears of overpopulation and resource depletion.
Indeed, I’d be willing to bet that a substantial number of you are surprised by, and maybe even resistant to, the notion that underpopulation rather than overpopulation is the major demographic “problem” we face today.
Why Investors Should Ignore Demographics – Bloomberg
This article gets it right – noting that big scary predictions of the future often turn out spectacularly wrong. But we still stick to them – think climatecrisis where we’ve got predictions out 100 years. Yet from my Follow Up series, we know that most expert predictions for the future turn out to be spectacularly wrong.
