They forecast a 1% enrollment decline – the Oregon fertility rate is 1.39, well below the 2.1 population replacement level.

PPS has not said exactly who would be cut, but that there would be a reduction at the elementary level. It’s still unclear whether there would be layoffs depending on how much movement there is from retirements or other reasons people leave.

The district says the average class size would be just over 22 students per homeroom in elementary schools, but many would be under that number.

Source: Staff reductions set to hit Portland, OR schools in 2023-24

In some states, school enrollment forecasts have been accused of being falsely high to defer making hard decisions about school closures. No idea if that is the case here.

Coldstreams