The population research expert adds, “migration is a hot-button topic but actually, fertility rate is one that I would highlight. The birth rate has been declining. Pre-pandemic, we projected that deaths would start to exceed the births in the mid-2020s due to population aging. Of course, the pandemic accelerated that.”
Sharygin says Oregon now has one of the lowest birth rates in the nation and thinks it’s an underappreciated reason for the state’s slowing growth.
“Our fertility rate, if you look at the birth rate, is around 1.4 children per women and that’s the same level as Japan,” Sharygrin said.
Source: Oregon’s population growth impacted by COVID, low birth rate, PSU says
And schools shrinking:
As the research center studies enrollment projections for several districts around the state, Sharygin says they have been sending the message that the declining birth rate means Oregon’s going to see smaller incoming class sizes.
The explanation that “every 40 years, has had three years of negative growth” is a weak explanation, as seen in the fertility rate chart – that is not coming back. Future growth will come entirely from in-bound migration.
