We need a plan to unwind the fear, the panic and the hysteria. We have no plan while epiastrologists feed us a daily diet of ever more scary scenarios.
The result is we remain locked up until we have “zero Covid”. From social media comments, much of the population believes that is the only acceptable goal.
I had measles in 1963, just before a vaccine was made available. In 1963, the case fatality ratio for measles was 2.1%.
In 1968, the planet was hit by an influenza pandemic. If we adjust U.S. estimated mortality from that pandemic to account for the increase in population since then, that pandemic killed about half as many relative to the total population as will likely be killed by Covid-19 in the U.S.
In either case – 1963 or 1968 – we did not shut down schools, businesses, restaurants, events. No one wore face masks.
Why the difference?
The difference between the past and now is how we evaluate life risk. Today, “zero risk” is the only acceptable outcome – since we can produce vaccines much faster than in the past.
Did our Covid-19 response make a difference? “Experts” estimate 30-40% of the population may have been exposed to Covid-19 by now and some think that might reach 50%. (It is common for many viruses to be asymptomatic or very mild in the majority of cases.) These values are on par with the maximum impact of some past pandemics. Thus, did our mitigations make any difference?
With the pandemic coming to an end, there are no plans to unwind the hysteria. Just read comments on social media where many insist we cannot open schools until risks are zero. These comments seem to be from typically (but not always) white, wealth privileged individuals who can work from home and have their “personal servants” (Instacart) deliver their food.
Without re-opening plans, we remain in lock down forever (my state continues to be in lockdown-lite – and has just started to relax some restrictions in some counties). Face masks, may be two masks, may be goggles, travel restrictions – for eternity. Some academic pinheads think we should have travel restrictions forever – internationally and between U.S. states with mandatory quarantines for all travel – forever – to prevent future pandemics.
Non-epidemiologist and successful disease modeler (so far) Youyang Gu suggests we should establish metrics for re-opening. It’s time to start unwinding the hysteria and return to rational thinking.
Read the whole thread.
Reminder – I am a brain injured idiot with no relevant experience. I do not make predictions: I make observations and ask stupid questions. Covid-19 is a real disease that has infected too many, sent too many to the hospital, and killed too many. Covid-19 is not a hoax.
