Disease models
Disease models remain worthless, on par with astrology with the honesty of alchemy. Daily Cases Forecast Color bands represent 95% confidence interval for each model used. Many of the models…
Follow up: “We anticipate in one to two weeks” patient numbers will jump back up
In fact, the Bend hospital saw a drop of 10 patients with COVID-19, from 42 on Friday to 32 on Monday, six of them in the ICU and three on…
Surge in good news: Novavax 90% effective
Source: Novavax: Large study finds COVID-19 shot about 90% effective | KATU
Paper: Shelter in place Orders “had no detectable health benefits”
We study the health, behavioral, and economic effects of one of the most politically controversial policies in recent memory, shelter-in-place orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous studies have claimed that…
June 10, 2020: If we wear masks, we will have no subsequent large waves
This was the experts prediction in June 2020. This did not age well. If lock-down periods are combined with 100% adoption of facemask use by the public, the initial disease…
Why masks had essentially no effect on Covid-19 spread
Why are masks so ineffective, even if we presume that they are effective? Because almost everybody that is wearing them does not have COVID-19. So in those people, there is…
Follow up in mid June: Post holiday spike in cases?
Despite all the experts and the media proclaiming post holiday surges – there have been none so far. Let’s follow up in a couple of weeks and take a look…
Funny that: Now that cases are dropping, the “experts” credit vaccines, not masks
The CDC Director told Congress that masks were more effective than vaccines. Repeatedly, the “experts” have told us that “masks work” even though epicurves per 100k population are virtually identical…
Follow up: Eric Feigl-Ding was 99% certain of a surge in April and May
Feigl-Ding projected, with “99% certain” confidence that another “surge is on the way in April or May” due to variants. He was not just a little wrong, he was completely…
Face masks are now a NPI to treat anxiety
Face masks were to protect others from droplet transmission (for a disease subsequently determined to spread primarily by aerosols and not large droplets). On social media, there are numerous posts…