Follow up: Unlikely to see variants that spread faster than Delta
October 2021: Graven said he’s also preparing for the possibility of another variant. “There will be a day where some variant will probably you know be something that kind of…
Follow up: 1 million deaths in India by August 2021 – Coldstreams Business and Tech
As noted in my previous follow up on this failed projection, as of Nov 2021, there had been 459,000 total deaths in India. By May 1, 2022, there have been…
Surely, mitigations and masks were super effective: “EU estimates up to 80% of population has had COVID”
Source: EU estimates up to 80% of population has had COVID
The “dueling experts” problem
Every day during the pandemic there are dueling “experts”. If the public is confused about inconsistent, contradictory and incoherent messaging, it is the public’s fault, of course. You are the…
So much for mitigation measures: “More than half of Americans have had COVID infections”
Following the record surge in COVID-19 cases during the Omicron-driven wave, some 58% of the U.S. population overall and more than 75% of younger children have been infected with the…
Follow up: Disease modeling for Ontario, Canada
Another moment in accurate disease model projections: When Ontario lifted public health protective measures in March, the expectation was that we might see a small but manageable bump in COVID-19…
Follow up: “Feb 1, 2022 – Infections will rise in Norway”
On Feb 1, 2022, the Chief of Norway's National Institute of Public Health said that "infections will rise when restrictions are lifted" and there would be a new "wave of…
Follow up: “Oregon predicts staggering omicron infections, hospitalizations”
Follow up on Oregon's OHSU disease models for Omicron. Like nearly all models, this was wrong, off in space, as usual.
Follow up: “Trucker protest could become a superspreader event”
Like nearly all forecasts that predicted an event would be a "superspreader" for Covid, this one in Canada was wrong, like they all are.
2 downhill skiers die, back to back days, due to head injuries
Both were wearing helmets and both suffered fatal head injuries at the ski resort. For the second time in two days, a skier has suffered fatal injuries in a crash…