Close up view since 1960
Some forecasts have the % reaching about 18% by 2040 due to continued high immigration, low domestic fertility rate, and a die off of the large Baby Boom cohort.
Some estimates are that about 20% of the Baby Boom has now passed away, rising to about 50% by 2035. A “model” not data estimates that 40% of the Baby Boom has already passed away – but I doubt that for many reasons. (1) A back of the envelope calculation suggests the average age of death would have been 71, (2) The current average age of death in the US is 79 (81 for females, 76 for males), (3) if so many are deceased now, then by 2032 when Social Security’s “Trust Fund” runs dry, most of the Baby Boom would be dead and not collecting Social Security benefits, meaning that “future aging population” explanation falls apart.
