This is based on a 2020 starting period; since then California and some others saw a drop in population which is not accounted for. In 2007, the CA Department of Finance projected that CA’s population would reach 60 million by 2050. As of 2025, they now project a flat population through 2050, remaining at 40 million.
Regardless, the U.S. is transition from an era of high population growth to nearly no population growth.
The era of a high growth, expanding population is over.
From 1960–1980 and 1980–2000, the U.S. population was expanding at 1.0–1.7% per year.
From 2020–2050, projections show 0.2–0.5% per year.
That’s a 3× to 8× slowdown.
This post was co-written with search, AI-search and AI assistance, edited and added to by me.
Using the Weldon Cooper Center projections
1960→1980 (20 years)
- Massive booms in CA, TX, FL, AZ, NV, CO
- Many states grew 30–80%
- Some doubled (NV, AZ)
1980→2000 (20 years)
- Still strong: Sunbelt states grew 30–60%
- Even slow states grew 5–20%
2020→2050 (20 years)
- Only a handful of states exceed 25–30% (TX, FL, AZ, ID, UT)
- Many states grow 0–10%
- Several shrink (IL, MI, OH, PA, WV, MS)
This is the lowest 20‑year forward growth curve in modern U.S. history.
What happened?
A. Fertility collapse (TFR=total fertility rate)
- 1960 TFR: 3.6
- 1980 TFR: 1.8
- 2024 TFR: 1.62
- 2050 projected TFR: 1.6–1.7
The U.S. is now below replacement permanently.
Immigration no longer compensates
1960–2000: immigration was high and rising
2020–2050: immigration is flat or declining, depending on policy
In 1973, 4.7% of the US population was foreign born. By January 2025, 15.8% of the US population was foreign born. About 40% of the US population is either an immigrant or at least one parent who is an immigrant. About 60% of the US population is either an immigrant, at least one parent or grandparent is an immigrant.
Aging population
The 65+ population is growing 5× faster than the working‑age population. This is due to the effect of the past post WW2 “baby boom” as seen in this fertility rate chart:
Internal or domesttic migration is redistributive, not additive
People moving from CA → TX or NY → FL shifts population between states but does not increase the national total.
- National population growth 2020→2050: ~13–15%
- 1960→1980: ~25%
- 1980→2000: ~24%
Growth is now FAR LOWER
The 2020→2050 growth curves are far lower — structurally, permanently, and across almost every state — than the explosive growth curves of 1960→1980 or 1980→2000.
The U.S. has entered a slow‑growth demographic regime, and the Weldon Cooper projections make that unmistakable.
Slower population growth means slower automaticeconomic growth
For most of the 20th century, businesses could expand simply because:
- every year there were more people,
- more young adults entering the workforce,
- more households forming,
- more children needing goods and services.
That era is over.
From 2020–2050, the U.S. adds far fewer people than in any comparable 30‑year period since the 1930s. When the customer base barely grows, companies can’t rely on “growth by demographic tailwind.” They must compete for a static or shrinking pool of consumers.
This shifts the economy from expansion-driven to redistribution-driven
The U.S. is entering a “post‑growth demographic economy”
This doesn’t mean decline — but it does mean a different model:
- growth comes from productivity, not population
- businesses compete for share, not new customers
- governments must plan for stable or shrinking cohorts
- infrastructure must be right‑sized
- long‑term fiscal planning must assume low population growth
This is the same transition Japan made in the 1990s and Europe in the 2000s.
