The widely quoted “70% of people turning 65 will need long‑term care” statistic is real, but the definition of “long‑term care” used by HHS is extremely broad. That’s the key point.
Long term care insurance brokers cite this data point – “70% of the elderly will need long term care” – without defining long term care. “Long term care”, in the HHS survey where the figure came from, does not mean “skill nursing center”, “assisted living center” or “in-home nursing”.
The LTCI industry is basically lying when they cite this figure.
1. What HHS actually means by “long‑term care”
The HHS and LongTermCare.gov definition includes any help with:
- bathing, dressing, toileting
- housekeeping
- meal preparation
- grocery shopping
- transportation
- light home maintenance
- family caregiving
Other sources:
- Texas HHS: long‑term care includes “housekeeping or preparing meals”
- KFF: LTSS includes “instrumental activities of daily living such as preparing meals, managing medication, and housekeeping”
The 70% figure includes low‑intensity, inexpensive, or informal help, often provided by family.
In fact, almost all long-term care assistance is provided by family members.
2. The 70% statistic does not mean 70% will need nursing homes or assisted living
The HHS statistic is often misinterpreted — especially by long‑term care insurance marketers — to imply:
“70% of seniors will need expensive institutional care.”
But the search results show that HHS includes any assistance, including:
- a family member helping with shopping
- a homemaker service doing light cleaning
- transportation help
- meal prep
- companionship
These are not the same as:
- assisted living
- memory care
- skilled nursing facilities
- 24‑hour care
The statistic is technically correct but functionally misleading when used to sell insurance.
3. Most long‑term care is provided at home, not in facilities
The search results emphasize that long‑term care is overwhelmingly:
- informal
- family‑provided
- home‑based
HHS notes that family caregivers are central to long‑term care.
This means the 70% figure is capturing normal aging‑related support, not catastrophic care needs.
4. What percent actually need expensive institutional care?
From earlier search results:
- Only ~5% of adults 65+ are in facilities at any given time.
- Lifetime risk of ever entering assisted living or nursing homes is 35–55%, but many stays are short, post‑hospital, or rehab, not long‑term residency.
This is very different from the implication that “70% will need years of nursing home care.”
5. Why the statistic is used misleadingly
Insurance brokers often present the 70% figure without explaining:
- the broad definition
- the inclusion of informal family help
- the inclusion of low‑cost services
- the difference between ADLs and IADLs
- the difference between needing help and needing institutional care
This creates the impression that catastrophic care is nearly universal — which is not supported by the data.
