We over rely on models and projections – we learned during Covid that disease models were near useless and wrong.
Sometimes they work and sometimes they do not – here is another example – the hurricane models did not work to predict a rapid intensification of Hurricane Milton.
Two weeks ago, there were models projecting the origination of hurricanes over the Sahara desert in Africa-which is not actually possible. The models had fallen apart.
Update: Hurricane Milton has come ashore – fortunately, the hurricane weakened to Category 3 before landfall: Hurricane Milton Makes Landfall On Florida’s West Coast | Weather.com
Some of the meteorologists I follow had said the storm was likely to encounter wind shear before reaching Florida, and indeed, the eye of the storm seemed to have fallen apart. Ultimately, the storm came ashore as a Cat 3 and was very quickly downgraded to a Cat 2 – which is very fortunate.
Many will remember, however, the Cat 5 prediction – as people tend to remember what they first hear, even when later corrected.
